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Grizzlies at Magic

NBA · Thursday, Jan 15 · 1:00 PM CT · Uber Arena · neutral site · Final MEM 111 – ORL 118
← NBA / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM39281232111
ORL23352634118
Team box
MEM·ORL
38-83
field goals
41-95
17-36
3-pointers
15-40
18-21
free throws
21-23
37
rebounds
54
27
assists
28
16
turnovers
16
38
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM333031
Paolo BancheroORL3726134
Anthony BlackORL362167
Franz WagnerORL271892
Santi AldamaMEM301851
Cedric CowardMEM271732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +20
MEM +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 11 · MEM 20lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 49%, ORL 51% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
ORL by 0.4
Expected score
ORL 112.7 – 112.2 MEM
Expected total
224.9
GrizzliesThe matchupMagic
+105Our fair odds−105
112.2Expected points112.7
−0.01Power rating+0.04
114.9Points / game116.2
116.2Allowed / game115.0
45.4FG%46.9
34.53P%33.4
46.6Rebounds / game44.6
17−22Season record22−18
4−6Last 105−5
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jahmai Mashack · Javon Small
Olivier-Maxence ProsperOutColin Castleton · Jalen Suggs
Jett Howard

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · ORL chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+10549%————
ORLOrlando Magic−10551%————
SpreadORL by 0.4
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.4our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.9
Over224.9our total————
Under224.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 0.4 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%
← MEM wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more42%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more28%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.9 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.531%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·ORL
Jan 11 vs BKN
last game
Jan 11 vs NO
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 15, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusionOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · g league - two-wayOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · left thumb; fractureOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right knee; mcl contusionOut
ORLJett Howard · n/a; illnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
MEM·ORL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
114.9
points / game
116.2
116.2
points allowed / game
115.0
17−22
season record
22−18
9−11
home record
13−7
8−11
away record
9−11
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
45.4
FG%
46.9
34.5
3P%
33.4
46.6
rebounds / game
44.6
29.0
assists / game
26.2
15.4
turnovers / game
14.1
49.5
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

MEM · ORL · 78 days
Memphis GrizzliesOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ORL 1−7
Feb 21, 2025at ORLMEM 105 − 104
Oct 26, 2024at MEMMEM 124 − 111
Mar 30, 2024at ORLORL 118 − 88
Jan 26, 2024at MEMMEM 107 − 106
Mar 28, 2023at MEMMEM 113 − 108
Jan 5, 2023at ORLMEM 123 − 115
Mar 5, 2022at MEMMEM 124 − 96
Feb 5, 2022at ORLMEM 135 − 115

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 11vs NO128 − 118W
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L
Jan 7at BKN104 − 103W
Jan 6at WSH112 − 120L
Jan 4vs IND135 − 127W
Jan 2at CHI114 − 121L
Dec 31, 2025at IND112 − 110W
Dec 29, 2025at TOR106 − 107L
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L