bayesRatings

Magic at Wizards

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final ORL 112 – WSH 120
← NBA / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL29213725112
WSH30323919120
Team box
ORL·WSH
42-92
field goals
39-86
12-33
3-pointers
11-34
16-24
free throws
31-33
48
rebounds
45
28
assists
25
19
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
CJ McCollumWSH382765
Alex SarrWSH312372
Jase RichardsonORL262033
Justin ChampagnieWSH221733
Desmond BaneORL241523
Bilal CoulibalyWSH341483

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +26
ORL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 26 · ORL 3lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 73%, WSH 27% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
ORL by 9.8
Expected score
ORL 118.5 – 108.7 WSH
Expected total
227.2
MagicThe matchupWizards
−270Our fair odds+270
118.5Expected points108.7
+0.09Power rating−1.14
117.1Points / game113.4
115.4Allowed / game124.4
47.0FG%46.4
33.73P%36.0
44.4Rebounds / game44.2
20−16Season record9−25
5−5Last 105−5
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jalen Suggs · Moritz WagnerOutCam Whitmore · Corey Kispert
Kyshawn George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair72.9%27.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−27073%————
WSHWashington Wizards+27027%————
SpreadORL by 9.8
ORLOrlando Magic−9.8our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+9.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 9.8 expected
Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%
← ORL wins byWSH wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more68%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more51%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·WSH
Jan 4 vs IND
last game
Jan 4 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 6, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right knee; mcl contusionOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHCorey Kispert · left hamstring; injury managementOut
WSHKyshawn George · left hip flexor; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
ORL·WSH
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−1.14
117.1
points / game
113.4
115.4
points allowed / game
124.4
20−16
season record
9−25
12−6
home record
5−12
8−10
away record
4−13
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
47.0
FG%
46.4
33.7
3P%
36.0
44.4
rebounds / game
44.2
26.3
assists / game
25.4
13.7
turnovers / game
15.5
54.2
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

ORL · WSH · 69 days
Orlando MagicWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 0−10
Nov 1, 2025at WSHORL 125 − 94
Apr 3, 2025at WSHORL 109 − 97
Mar 21, 2025at WSHORL 120 − 105
Feb 23, 2025at ORLORL 110 − 90
Nov 10, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 94
Mar 6, 2024at WSHORL 119 − 109
Dec 26, 2023at WSHORL 127 − 119
Dec 1, 2023at ORLORL 130 − 125
Nov 29, 2023at ORLORL 139 − 120
Mar 31, 2023at WSHORL 116 − 109

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 4vs IND135 − 127W
Jan 2at CHI114 − 121L
Dec 31, 2025at IND112 − 110W
Dec 29, 2025at TOR106 − 107L
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L
Dec 23, 2025at POR110 − 106W
Dec 22, 2025at GS97 − 120L
Dec 20, 2025at UTAH128 − 127W
Dec 18, 2025at DEN115 − 126L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 4vs MIN115 − 141L
Jan 2vs BKN119 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025at MIL114 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025vs PHX101 − 115L
Dec 28, 2025vs MEM116 − 112W
Dec 26, 2025vs TOR138 − 117W
Dec 23, 2025at CHA109 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs SA113 − 124L
Dec 20, 2025at MEM130 − 122W
Dec 18, 2025at SA94 − 119L