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Timberwolves at Wizards

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 5:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MIN 141 – WSH 115
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN38353533141
WSH28302136115
Team box
MIN·WSH
55-98
field goals
43-88
11-37
3-pointers
12-36
20-27
free throws
17-19
51
rebounds
35
29
assists
21
14
turnovers
19
76
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN303563
Julius RandleMIN252234
CJ McCollumWSH222032
Rudy GobertMIN2918140
Tre JohnsonWSH271333
Corey KispertWSH181310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +37
MIN +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 3 · MIN 37lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 83%, WSH 17% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
MIN by 15.0
Expected score
MIN 123.5 – 108.5 WSH
Expected total
231.9
TimberwolvesThe matchupWizards
−478Our fair odds+478
123.5Expected points108.5
+0.57Power rating−1.25
118.9Points / game113.4
114.6Allowed / game123.9
47.9FG%46.3
36.83P%36.1
44.1Rebounds / game44.5
22−13Season record9−24
6−4Last 106−4
Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.Out (4 each)Cam Whitmore · Jamir Watkins
Kyshawn George · Sharife Cooper

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair82.7%17.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−47883%————
WSHWashington Wizards+47817%————
SpreadMIN by 15.0
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−15our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+15our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 15.0 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%
← MIN wins byWSH wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more81%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more66%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more49%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·WSH
Jan 3 at MIA
last game
Jan 2 vs BKN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHJamir Watkins · g league - two-wayOut
WSHKyshawn George · left hip flexor; strainOut
WSHSharife Cooper · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
MIN·WSH
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−1.25
118.9
points / game
113.4
114.6
points allowed / game
123.9
22−13
season record
9−24
12−6
home record
5−11
10−7
away record
4−13
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.9
FG%
46.3
36.8
3P%
36.1
44.1
rebounds / game
44.5
26.5
assists / game
25.5
14.2
turnovers / game
15.4
50.2
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

MIN · WSH · 67 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 5−4
Nov 19, 2025at MINMIN 120 − 109
Feb 1, 2025at MINWSH 105 − 103
Jan 13, 2025at WSHMIN 120 − 106
Apr 9, 2024at MINMIN 130 − 121
Jan 24, 2024at WSHMIN 118 − 107
Feb 16, 2023at MINWSH 114 − 106
Nov 28, 2022at WSHWSH 142 − 127
Apr 5, 2022at MINWSH 132 − 114
Dec 1, 2021at WSHWSH 115 − 107

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 3at MIA125 − 115W
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 2vs BKN119 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025at MIL114 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025vs PHX101 − 115L
Dec 28, 2025vs MEM116 − 112W
Dec 26, 2025vs TOR138 − 117W
Dec 23, 2025at CHA109 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs SA113 − 124L
Dec 20, 2025at MEM130 − 122W
Dec 18, 2025at SA94 − 119L
Dec 14, 2025at IND108 − 89W