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Pelicans at Magic

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 2:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final NO 118 – ORL 128
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO26333920118
ORL26323337128
Team box
NO·ORL
46-80
field goals
43-82
14-26
3-pointers
11-24
12-15
free throws
31-35
26
rebounds
39
27
assists
27
16
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Desmond BaneORL352754
Anthony BlackORL362657
Paolo BancheroORL392388
Zion WilliamsonNO322233
Trey Murphy IIINO372176
Jordan PooleNO232102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +12
NO +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 12 · NO 11lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 25%, ORL 75% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
ORL by 9.6
Expected score
ORL 117.2 – 107.7 NO
Expected total
224.9
PelicansThe matchupMagic
+299Our fair odds−299
107.7Expected points117.2
−0.79Power rating+0.09
114.8Points / game115.9
122.3Allowed / game114.9
46.2FG%46.7
33.63P%33.1
43.5Rebounds / game44.7
9−31Season record21−18
1−9Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose Alvarado
Saddiq BeyOutColin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jalen Suggs · Wendell Carter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · ORL chance
Our model fair25.1%74.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+29925%————
ORLOrlando Magic−29975%————
SpreadORL by 9.6
NONew Orleans Pelicans+9.6our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.9
Over224.9our total————
Under224.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 9.6 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 51 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 52 points: <1%
← NO wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more65%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more50%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.9 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.531%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FNoah Pendastarted
CGoga Bitadzestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·ORL
Jan 9 at WSH
last game
Jan 9 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; strainOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right knee; mcl contusionOut
ORLWendell Carter Jr. · right hip; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
NO·ORL
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
114.8
points / game
115.9
122.3
points allowed / game
114.9
9−31
season record
21−18
6−17
home record
12−7
3−14
away record
9−11
W1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
5−5
46.2
FG%
46.7
33.6
3P%
33.1
43.5
rebounds / game
44.7
24.9
assists / game
26.2
14.8
turnovers / game
14.1
58.1
points in paint / game
54.3

Rating Trend

NO · ORL · 74 days
New Orleans PelicansOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ORL 7−1
Mar 13, 2025at NOORL 113 − 93
Nov 8, 2024at ORLORL 115 − 88
Apr 3, 2024at NOORL 117 − 108
Mar 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 106
Feb 27, 2023at NOORL 101 − 93
Jan 20, 2023at ORLORL 123 − 110
Mar 9, 2022at NOORL 108 − 102
Dec 23, 2021at ORLNO 110 − 104

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L
Jan 7at BKN104 − 103W
Jan 6at WSH112 − 120L
Jan 4vs IND135 − 127W
Jan 2at CHI114 − 121L
Dec 31, 2025at IND112 − 110W
Dec 29, 2025at TOR106 − 107L
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L
Dec 23, 2025at POR110 − 106W