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Pelicans at Wizards

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NO 128 – WSH 107
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO28324028128
WSH26243423107
Team box
NO·WSH
51-95
field goals
37-87
11-34
3-pointers
11-35
15-24
free throws
22-33
51
rebounds
40
30
assists
24
19
turnovers
19
68
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO363584
Zion WilliamsonNO293143
Jeremiah FearsNO322156
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH241552
Tristan VukcevicWSH231542
Derik QueenNO35141612

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +26
NO +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 1 · NO 26lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 53%, WSH 47% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
NO by 2.5
Expected score
NO 120.1 – 117.6 WSH
Expected total
237.7
PelicansThe matchupWizards
−113Our fair odds+113
120.1Expected points117.6
−0.79Power rating−1.14
114.5Points / game113.5
122.7Allowed / game124.2
46.0FG%46.4
33.73P%36.0
43.3Rebounds / game44.2
8−31Season record10−26
1−9Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose Alvarado
Saddiq BeyOutCJ McCollum · Cam Whitmore
Corey Kispert · Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · WSH chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans−11353%————
WSHWashington Wizards+11347%————
SpreadNO by 2.5
NONew Orleans Pelicans−2.5our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.7
Over237.7our total————
Under237.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 2.5 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%
← NO wins byWSH wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more47%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more32%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

237.7 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Washington Wizards
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·WSH
Jan 7 at ATL
last game
Jan 7 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; sorenessOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
NOTrey Murphy III · low back; spasmsQuestionable
Washington Wizards
WSHCJ McCollum · trade pendingOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHCorey Kispert · trade pendingOut
WSHTrae Young · right quad; contusion; right knee, mcl sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NO·WSH
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
−1.14
114.5
points / game
113.5
122.7
points allowed / game
124.2
8−31
season record
10−26
6−17
home record
6−12
2−14
away record
4−14
L9
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
5−5
46.0
FG%
46.4
33.7
3P%
36.0
43.3
rebounds / game
44.2
24.8
assists / game
25.4
14.7
turnovers / game
15.7
57.8
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

NO · WSH · 72 days
New Orleans PelicansWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WSH 2−6
Jan 5, 2025at WSHNO 110 − 98
Jan 3, 2025at NONO 132 − 120
Feb 14, 2024at NONO 133 − 126
Dec 13, 2023at WSHNO 142 − 122
Jan 28, 2023at NOWSH 113 − 103
Jan 9, 2023at WSHNO 132 − 112
Nov 24, 2021at NONO 127 − 102
Nov 15, 2021at WSHWSH 105 − 100

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 7at PHI110 − 131L
Jan 6vs ORL120 − 112W
Jan 4vs MIN115 − 141L
Jan 2vs BKN119 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025at MIL114 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025vs PHX101 − 115L
Dec 28, 2025vs MEM116 − 112W
Dec 26, 2025vs TOR138 − 117W
Dec 23, 2025at CHA109 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs SA113 − 124L