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Bucks at Hawks

NBA · Monday, Jan 19 · 12:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIL 112 – ATL 110
← NBA / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL20342632112
ATL19193438110
Team box
MIL·ATL
39-79
field goals
39-96
16-36
3-pointers
12-42
18-25
free throws
20-24
47
rebounds
51
24
assists
33
13
turnovers
10
38
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL393266
Jalen JohnsonATL4028166
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3021176
Bobby PortisMIL241931
AJ GreenMIL421831
Dyson DanielsATL3017910

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +23
MIL +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 3 · MIL 23lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
ATL by 1.5
Expected score
ATL 118.8 – 117.3 MIL
Expected total
236.1
BucksThe matchupHawks
+127Our fair odds−127
117.3Expected points118.8
−0.07Power rating−0.05
112.4Points / game117.6
115.8Allowed / game119.2
48.4FG%47.5
39.43P%36.5
40.3Rebounds / game41.8
17−24Season record20−24
5−5Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Taurean PrinceOutKristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · RayJ Dennis
Zaccharie Risacher

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+12744%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−12756%————
SpreadATL by 1.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks+1.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.1
Over236.1our total————
Under236.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 1.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%
← MIL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more44%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more30%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.1 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATL
Jan 15 at SA
last game
Jan 17 vs BOS
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 19, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · coach's decisionOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
MIL·ATL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
112.4
points / game
117.6
115.8
points allowed / game
119.2
17−24
season record
20−24
9−10
home record
7−12
8−14
away record
13−12
L3
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
48.4
FG%
47.5
39.4
3P%
36.5
40.3
rebounds / game
41.8
26.2
assists / game
30.9
14.8
turnovers / game
14.8
44.7
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

MIL · ATL · 82 days
Milwaukee BucksAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Mar 30, 2025at MILATL 145 − 124
Mar 4, 2025at ATLMIL 127 − 121
Feb 7, 2025at ATLATL 115 − 110
Dec 14, 2024at MILMIL 110 − 102
Dec 4, 2024at MILATL 119 − 104
Mar 30, 2024at ATLMIL 122 − 113
Dec 2, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 121
Oct 29, 2023at MILATL 127 − 110
Jan 11, 2023at ATLMIL 114 − 105
Nov 14, 2022at MILATL 121 − 106

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W