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Bucks at Nuggets

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIL 104 – DEN 108
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL23292230104
DEN27352323108
Team box
MIL·DEN
38-85
field goals
35-87
14-34
3-pointers
14-35
14-20
free throws
24-31
44
rebounds
45
29
assists
23
11
turnovers
9
38
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3331811
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN352520
Aaron GordonDEN322364
Peyton WatsonDEN391986
Myles TurnerMIL241650
Zeke NnajiDEN2814103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +15
MIL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 15 · MIL 7lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 31%, DEN 69% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
DEN by 6.5
Expected score
DEN 121.2 – 114.7 MIL
Expected total
235.9
BucksThe matchupNuggets
+218Our fair odds−218
114.7Expected points121.2
−0.07Power rating+0.50
113.1Points / game123.1
115.3Allowed / game117.8
48.7FG%50.6
39.63P%39.8
40.5Rebounds / game43.2
17−21Season record25−13
6−4Last 104−6
Alex Antetokounmpo · Pete Nance
Taurean PrinceOutCameron Johnson · Curtis Jones
Jonas Valanciunas · Nikola Jokic
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair31.4%68.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+21831%————
DENDenver Nuggets−21869%————
SpreadDEN by 6.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks+6.5our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.9
Over235.9our total————
Under235.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%
← MIL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more58%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more42%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.9 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.550%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FHunter Tysonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·DEN
Jan 9 at LAL
last game
Jan 9 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right hip; contusionProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprain/illnessQuestionable
DENSpencer Jones · left ankle; inflammation/illnessQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
MIL·DEN
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
113.1
points / game
123.1
115.3
points allowed / game
117.8
17−21
season record
25−13
9−9
home record
10−6
8−12
away record
15−7
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
48.7
FG%
50.6
39.6
3P%
39.8
40.5
rebounds / game
43.2
26.2
assists / game
28.9
14.8
turnovers / game
13.3
45.2
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

MIL · DEN · 74 days
Milwaukee BucksDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 4−4
Mar 26, 2025at DENDEN 127 − 117
Feb 27, 2025at MILMIL 121 − 112
Feb 12, 2024at MILMIL 112 − 95
Jan 29, 2024at DENDEN 113 − 107
Mar 25, 2023at DENDEN 129 − 106
Jan 25, 2023at MILMIL 107 − 99
Jan 30, 2022at MILDEN 136 − 100
Nov 26, 2021at DENMIL 120 − 109

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L