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Bucks at Lakers

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MIL 105 – LAL 101
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL24372519105
LAL25272524101
Team box
MIL·LAL
38-79
field goals
39-91
12-34
3-pointers
15-36
17-22
free throws
8-14
44
rebounds
45
23
assists
28
17
turnovers
13
50
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL3326910
Luka DoncicLAL362499
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL392256
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL312165
Kyle KuzmaMIL231332
Jake LaRaviaLAL341322

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +12
MIL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 6 · MIL 12lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 38%, LAL 62% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
LAL by 3.4
Expected score
LAL 116.0 – 112.6 MIL
Expected total
228.7
BucksThe matchupLakers
+164Our fair odds−164
112.6Expected points116.0
−0.07Power rating+0.20
113.3Points / game116.3
115.6Allowed / game116.6
48.7FG%49.9
39.73P%34.1
40.4Rebounds / game41.3
16−21Season record23−12
5−5Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Pete Nance
Taurean PrinceOut (3 each)Adou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Rui Hachimura

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAL chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+16438%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−16462%————
SpreadLAL by 3.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks+3.4our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 3.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%
← MIL wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more50%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more35%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAL
Jan 7 at GS
last game
Jan 7 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; strainOut
LALLeBron James · left foot joint arthritis; & right sciaticaProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
MIL·LAL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
113.3
points / game
116.3
115.6
points allowed / game
116.6
16−21
season record
23−12
9−9
home record
10−6
7−12
away record
13−6
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
48.7
FG%
49.9
39.7
3P%
34.1
40.4
rebounds / game
41.3
26.2
assists / game
24.9
14.8
turnovers / game
15.5
45.0
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

MIL · LAL · 72 days
Milwaukee BucksLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAL 4−5
Nov 15, 2025at MILLAL 119 − 95
Mar 20, 2025at LALMIL 118 − 89
Mar 13, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 106
Mar 26, 2024at MILLAL 128 − 124
Mar 8, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 122
Feb 9, 2023at LALMIL 115 − 106
Dec 2, 2022at MILLAL 133 − 129
Feb 8, 2022at LALMIL 131 − 116
Nov 17, 2021at MILMIL 109 − 102

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 7at SA91 − 107L
Jan 6at NO111 − 103W
Jan 4vs MEM120 − 114W
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W
Dec 30, 2025vs DET106 − 128L
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W
Dec 25, 2025vs HOU96 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W