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Timberwolves at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final MIN 139 – MIL 106
← NBA / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN38383033139
MIL20253328106
Team box
MIN·MIL
55-92
field goals
41-85
22-42
3-pointers
13-36
7-12
free throws
11-19
44
rebounds
32
37
assists
29
16
turnovers
20
58
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN302986
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL312585
Bones HylandMIN212325
Naz ReidMIN281932
Jaden McDanielsMIN301765
Bobby PortisMIL271471

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +41
MIN +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 0 · MIN 41lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, MIL 40% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
MIN by 3.1
Expected score
MIN 115.1 – 112.0 MIL
Expected total
227.2
TimberwolvesThe matchupBucks
−148Our fair odds+148
115.1Expected points112.0
+0.56Power rating−0.07
119.9Points / game112.9
114.8Allowed / game115.1
48.4FG%48.6
37.23P%39.6
44.8Rebounds / game40.6
26−14Season record17−22
6−4Last 106−4
Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco Zikarsky · Rudy Gobert
Terrence Shannon Jr.OutAlex Antetokounmpo · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14860%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+14840%————
SpreadMIN by 3.1
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.1 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byMIL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more48%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more34%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CNaz Reidstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FBobby Portisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·MIL
Jan 11 vs SA
last game
Jan 11 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 12, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; injury maintenanceOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINRudy Gobert · league suspensionOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILMyles Turner · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
MIN·MIL
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
119.9
points / game
112.9
114.8
points allowed / game
115.1
26−14
season record
17−22
15−6
home record
9−9
11−8
away record
8−13
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
48.4
FG%
48.6
37.2
3P%
39.6
44.8
rebounds / game
40.6
26.8
assists / game
26.2
14.2
turnovers / game
14.7
51.3
points in paint / game
45.0

Rating Trend

MIN · MIL · 76 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 5−4
Dec 21, 2025at MINMIN 103 − 100
Apr 8, 2025at MILMIL 110 − 103
Feb 12, 2025at MINMIL 103 − 101
Feb 23, 2024at MINMIL 112 − 107
Feb 8, 2024at MILMIN 129 − 105
Dec 30, 2022at MILMIL 123 − 114
Nov 4, 2022at MINMIL 115 − 102
Mar 19, 2022at MINMIN 138 − 119
Oct 27, 2021at MILMIN 113 − 108

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W
Jan 6vs MIA122 − 94W
Jan 4at WSH141 − 115W
Jan 3at MIA125 − 115W
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W