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Timberwolves at Cavaliers

NBA · Saturday, Jan 10 · 12:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final MIN 134 – CLE 146
← NBA / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN33322643134
CLE29343647146
Team box
MIN·CLE
51-89
field goals
55-92
16-32
3-pointers
15-31
16-20
free throws
21-25
40
rebounds
31
31
assists
38
16
turnovers
10
58
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE312838
Naz ReidMIN282553
Anthony EdwardsMIN352553
Evan MobleyCLE322443
Jaylon TysonCLE262322
Darius GarlandCLE292206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +18
MIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 18 · MIN 12lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
CLE by 1.9
Expected score
CLE 116.6 – 114.7 MIN
Expected total
231.3
TimberwolvesThe matchupCavaliers
+113Our fair odds−113
114.7Expected points116.6
+0.53Power rating+0.43
119.9Points / game119.3
114.3Allowed / game117.2
48.3FG%46.9
37.03P%35.2
44.8Rebounds / game44.9
25−13Season record21−18
7−3Last 106−4
Enrique Freeman · Mike Conley
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.Out (4 each)Chris Livingston · Dean Wade
Luke Travers · Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+11347%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11353%————
SpreadCLE by 1.9
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+1.9our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.3
Over231.3our total————
Under231.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 1.9 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more46%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more31%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.3 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Jan 8 vs CLE
last game
Jan 8 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINMike Conley · restOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDean Wade · left knee; contusionOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
MIN·CLE
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
119.9
points / game
119.3
114.3
points allowed / game
117.2
25−13
season record
21−18
14−6
home record
13−9
11−7
away record
8−9
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
46.9
37.0
3P%
35.2
44.8
rebounds / game
44.9
26.8
assists / game
27.9
14.2
turnovers / game
14.2
51.2
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 73 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CLE 4−5
Jan 8at MINMIN 131 − 122
Feb 10, 2025at CLECLE 128 − 107
Jan 18, 2025at MINCLE 124 − 117
Mar 22, 2024at MINMIN 104 − 91
Mar 8, 2024at CLECLE 113 − 104
Jan 14, 2023at MINMIN 110 − 102
Nov 13, 2022at CLEMIN 129 − 124
Feb 28, 2022at CLEMIN 127 − 122
Dec 10, 2021at MINCLE 123 − 106

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W
Jan 6vs MIA122 − 94W
Jan 4at WSH141 − 115W
Jan 3at MIA125 − 115W
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 8at MIN122 − 131L
Jan 6at IND120 − 116W
Jan 4vs DET110 − 114L
Jan 2vs DEN113 − 108W
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025at SA113 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at HOU100 − 117L
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W