bayesRatings

Suns at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, Jan 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final PHX 105 – DET 108
← NBA / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX32312715105
DET23333319108
Team box
PHX·DET
36-87
field goals
38-81
17-46
3-pointers
9-32
16-25
free throws
23-37
41
rebounds
54
21
assists
25
14
turnovers
17
30
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Grayson AllenPHX313350
Duncan RobinsonDET271910
Collin GillespiePHX361826
Jalen DurenDET2816182
Tobias HarrisDET291672
Dillon BrooksPHX281611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +16
PHX +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 8 · PHX 16lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 39%, DET 61% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
DET by 4.8
Expected score
DET 115.7 – 110.8 PHX
Expected total
226.5
SunsThe matchupPistons
+156Our fair odds−156
110.8Expected points115.7
+0.15Power rating+0.37
114.8Points / game117.8
112.2Allowed / game111.2
46.3FG%48.3
36.13P%35.1
43.6Rebounds / game46.1
24−16Season record28−10
7−3Last 106−4
Devin Booker · Jalen Green
Jamaree BouyeaOutBobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Paul Reed
Tolu Smith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · DET chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+15639%————
DETDetroit Pistons−15661%————
SpreadDET by 4.8
PHXPhoenix Suns+4.8our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.8 expected
Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%
← PHX wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more53%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more38%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·DET
Jan 13 at MIA
last game
Jan 10 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 15, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · left ankle; sprainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXJamaree Bouyea · concussion protocolOut
PHXNigel Hayes-Davis · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETPaul Reed · personal reasonsOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · illness; illnessProbable
DETJalen Duren · right ankle; sprainProbable
DETTobias Harris · left hip; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
PHX·DET
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
114.8
points / game
117.8
112.2
points allowed / game
111.2
24−16
season record
28−10
14−5
home record
15−4
10−11
away record
13−6
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
46.3
FG%
48.3
36.1
3P%
35.1
43.6
rebounds / game
46.1
25.4
assists / game
26.7
15.4
turnovers / game
15.9
45.5
points in paint / game
57.5

Rating Trend

PHX · DET · 78 days
Phoenix SunsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 1−7
Jan 18, 2025at DETPHX 125 − 121
Dec 21, 2024at PHXDET 133 − 125
Feb 14, 2024at PHXPHX 116 − 100
Nov 5, 2023at DETPHX 120 − 106
Feb 4, 2023at DETPHX 116 − 100
Nov 25, 2022at PHXPHX 108 − 102
Jan 16, 2022at DETPHX 135 − 108
Dec 2, 2021at PHXPHX 114 − 103

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 13at MIA121 − 127L
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W
Jan 9vs NY112 − 107W
Jan 7at MEM117 − 98W
Jan 5at HOU97 − 100L
Jan 4vs OKC108 − 105W
Jan 2vs SAC129 − 102W
Dec 31, 2025at CLE113 − 129L
Dec 29, 2025at WSH115 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at NO123 − 114W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W