bayesRatings

Thunder at Timberwolves

NBA · Thursday, Jan 29 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final OKC 111 – MIN 123
← NBA / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC22283031111
MIN34293327123
Team box
OKC·MIN
41-86
field goals
45-89
11-31
3-pointers
22-47
18-20
free throws
11-18
36
rebounds
46
27
assists
26
16
turnovers
20
52
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC313068
Anthony EdwardsMIN352655
Jaden McDanielsMIN312144
Naz ReidMIN291872
Chet HolmgrenOKC301552
Rudy GobertMIN3414113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 22 · OKC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 63%, MIN 37% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
OKC by 4.6
Expected score
OKC 115.5 – 111.0 MIN
Expected total
226.5
ThunderThe matchupTimberwolves
−171Our fair odds+171
115.5Expected points111.0
+1.23Power rating+0.47
120.5Points / game119.0
107.6Allowed / game114.1
49.2FG%48.1
35.93P%37.4
43.8Rebounds / game45.0
38−10Season record29−19
7−3Last 104−6
Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutEnrique Freeman · Mike Conley
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair63.1%36.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17163%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+17137%————
SpreadOKC by 4.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMIN wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more53%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more37%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MIN
Jan 27 vs NO
last game
Jan 28 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 29, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · n/a; abdominal strainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring;Out
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCCason Wallace · left hip; sorenessQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINMike Conley · strain back; spasmsOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
MINRudy Gobert · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
OKC·MIN
+1.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
120.5
points / game
119.0
107.6
points allowed / game
114.1
38−10
season record
29−19
21−5
home record
16−8
17−5
away record
13−11
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
49.2
FG%
48.1
35.9
3P%
37.4
43.8
rebounds / game
45.0
25.4
assists / game
26.6
12.2
turnovers / game
14.5
51.8
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

OKC · MIN · 92 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Dec 19, 2025at MINMIN 112 − 107
Nov 26, 2025at OKCOKC 113 − 105
May 28, 2025at OKCOKC 124 − 94post
May 26, 2025at MINOKC 128 − 126post
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 143 − 101post
May 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 103post
May 20, 2025at OKCOKC 114 − 88post
Feb 24, 2025at OKCMIN 131 − 128
Feb 23, 2025at MINOKC 130 − 123
Feb 13, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 101

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L
Jan 20at UTAH122 − 127L
Jan 17at SA123 − 126L
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L