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Timberwolves at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final MIN 123 – SA 126
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN22224039123
SA21482730126
Team box
MIN·SA
42-90
field goals
47-94
14-34
3-pointers
15-38
25-28
free throws
17-28
41
rebounds
43
22
assists
35
11
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN405543
Victor WembanyamaSA313993
De'Aaron FoxSA3725312
Jaden McDanielsMIN412355
Keldon JohnsonSA312012
Julius RandleMIN4117101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +25
MIN +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 25 · MIN 5lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 53%, SA 47% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
MIN by 1.2
Expected score
MIN 115.5 – 114.3 SA
Expected total
229.8
TimberwolvesThe matchupSpurs
−114Our fair odds+114
115.5Expected points114.3
+0.56Power rating+0.20
120.0Points / game117.5
114.5Allowed / game112.8
48.6FG%47.2
37.53P%34.9
44.8Rebounds / game46.6
27−15Season record28−14
7−3Last 105−5
Enrique Freeman · Joe Ingles
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.OutDavid Jones Garcia · Devin Vassell

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SA chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−11453%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+11447%————
SpreadMIN by 1.2
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−1.2our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 1.2 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%
← MIN wins bySA wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more43%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more29%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CNaz Reidstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SA
Jan 16 at HOU
last game
Jan 15 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoe Ingles · personal reasonsOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
MINRudy Gobert · left hip; contusionQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · " "; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
MIN·SA
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
120.0
points / game
117.5
114.5
points allowed / game
112.8
27−15
season record
28−14
15−6
home record
14−5
12−9
away record
14−9
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.6
FG%
47.2
37.5
3P%
34.9
44.8
rebounds / game
46.6
26.9
assists / game
25.7
14.2
turnovers / game
13.8
51.2
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

MIN · SA · 80 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 2−8
Jan 11at MINMIN 104 − 103
Nov 30, 2025at MINMIN 125 − 112
Mar 9, 2025at MINMIN 141 − 124
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 110
Dec 15, 2024at SAMIN 106 − 92
Nov 2, 2024at SASA 113 − 103
Feb 27, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 105
Jan 27, 2024at SASA 113 − 112
Dec 6, 2023at MINMIN 102 − 94
Nov 10, 2023at SAMIN 117 − 110

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W
Jan 6vs MIA122 − 94W
Jan 4at WSH141 − 115W
Jan 3at MIA125 − 115W
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W

SA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L
Jan 11at MIN103 − 104L
Jan 10at BOS100 − 95W
Jan 7vs LAL107 − 91W
Jan 6at MEM105 − 106L
Jan 3vs POR110 − 115L
Jan 2at IND123 − 113W
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L