bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Jan 16 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MIN 105 – HOU 110
← NBA / Jan 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN34212723105
HOU29242829110
Team box
MIN·HOU
37-80
field goals
39-84
11-30
3-pointers
12-28
20-35
free throws
20-34
45
rebounds
42
21
assists
19
16
turnovers
14
42
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU403947
Julius RandleMIN403942
Alperen SengunHOU3225143
Naz ReidMIN322594
Jaden McDanielsMIN351574
Amen ThompsonHOU361474

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +12
MIN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 9 · MIN 12lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Jan 16

Expected margin
HOU by 2.4
Expected score
HOU 113.5 – 111.1 MIN
Expected total
224.7
TimberwolvesThe matchupRockets
+117Our fair odds−117
111.1Expected points113.5
+0.56Power rating+0.49
120.3Points / game117.2
114.6Allowed / game110.8
48.7FG%48.2
37.63P%37.3
44.8Rebounds / game49.4
27−14Season record23−15
7−3Last 105−5
Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.OutFred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+11746%————
HOUHouston Rockets−11754%————
SpreadHOU by 2.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+2.4our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.7
Over224.7our total————
Under224.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more47%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more32%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.7 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·HOU
Jan 13 at MIL
last game
Jan 15 vs OKC
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 16, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; injury maintenanceOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
MIN·HOU
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
120.3
points / game
117.2
114.6
points allowed / game
110.8
27−14
season record
23−15
15−6
home record
12−3
12−8
away record
11−12
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.7
FG%
48.2
37.6
3P%
37.3
44.8
rebounds / game
49.4
27.0
assists / game
24.9
14.2
turnovers / game
15.6
51.5
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

MIN · HOU · 79 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Feb 21, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 127 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at HOUMIN 113 − 112
Nov 26, 2024at MINHOU 117 − 111
Apr 2, 2024at MINMIN 113 − 106
Feb 4, 2024at MINMIN 111 − 90
Jan 5, 2024at HOUMIN 122 − 95
Jan 23, 2023at HOUHOU 119 − 114
Jan 21, 2023at MINMIN 113 − 104
Jan 8, 2023at HOUMIN 104 − 96

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W
Jan 6vs MIA122 − 94W
Jan 4at WSH141 − 115W
Jan 3at MIA125 − 115W
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W