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Rockets at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 8:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final HOU 98 – SAC 111
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU2325282298
SAC22292733111
Team box
HOU·SAC
36-84
field goals
44-91
7-30
3-pointers
8-23
19-29
free throws
15-20
44
rebounds
45
23
assists
25
13
turnovers
10
52
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU4131136
Kevin DurantHOU382346
DeMar DeRozanSAC372226
Alperen SengunHOU351994
Zach LaVineSAC281821
Russell WestbrookSAC3415610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +16
HOU +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 16 · HOU 5lead changes: 28

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 70%, SAC 30% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
HOU by 8.9
Expected score
HOU 119.0 – 110.1 SAC
Expected total
229.2
RocketsThe matchupKings
−234Our fair odds+234
119.0Expected points110.1
+0.59Power rating−0.50
118.5Points / game109.8
110.7Allowed / game122.1
48.6FG%45.9
38.23P%33.9
49.3Rebounds / game40.5
22−13Season record8−30
5−5Last 102−8
Fred VanVleet · Tari Eason
Tristen NewtonOutDaeqwon Plowden · Dennis Schroder
Domantas Sabonis · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SAC chance
Our model fair70.1%29.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−23470%————
SACSacramento Kings+23430%————
SpreadHOU by 8.9
HOUHouston Rockets−8.9our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+8.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.9 expected
Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%
← HOU wins bySAC wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more65%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more49%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAaron Holidaystarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SAC
Jan 9 at POR
last game
Jan 9 at GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUTari Eason · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDennis Schroder · league suspensionOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
HOU·SAC
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
118.5
points / game
109.8
110.7
points allowed / game
122.1
22−13
season record
8−30
11−2
home record
5−13
11−11
away record
3−17
L2
streak
L7
5−5
last 10
2−8
48.6
FG%
45.9
38.2
3P%
33.9
49.3
rebounds / game
40.5
25.2
assists / game
24.9
15.9
turnovers / game
14.3
53.1
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

HOU · SAC · 74 days
Houston RocketsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 6−4
Dec 21, 2025at SACSAC 125 − 124
Dec 3, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 95
Mar 1, 2025at HOUSAC 113 − 103
Jan 16, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 127
Dec 3, 2024at SACSAC 120 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at SACHOU 112 − 104
Nov 6, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 97
Nov 4, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 89
Feb 8, 2023at HOUSAC 130 − 128
Feb 6, 2023at HOUSAC 140 − 120

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Jan 9at GS103 − 137L
Jan 6vs DAL98 − 100L
Jan 4vs MIL98 − 115L
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L
Jan 1vs BOS106 − 120L
Dec 30, 2025at LAC90 − 131L
Dec 28, 2025at LAL101 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025vs DAL113 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025vs DET127 − 136L
Dec 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W