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Thunder at Rockets

NBA · Thursday, Jan 15 · 6:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final OKC 111 – HOU 91
← NBA / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC21342234111
HOU1929271691
Team box
OKC·HOU
41-89
field goals
35-104
16-41
3-pointers
7-24
13-15
free throws
14-17
44
rebounds
60
25
assists
17
12
turnovers
16
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC332024
Kevin DurantHOU371973
Chet HolmgrenOKC291891
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3417101
Ajay MitchellOKC231753
Alperen SengunHOU3314135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +25
OKC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 1 · OKC 25lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 63%, HOU 37% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
OKC by 3.5
Expected score
OKC 114.2 – 110.7 HOU
Expected total
224.9
ThunderThe matchupRockets
−173Our fair odds+173
114.2Expected points110.7
+1.27Power rating+0.49
121.3Points / game117.9
108.1Allowed / game110.8
49.2FG%48.5
35.73P%37.6
43.9Rebounds / game49.1
34−7Season record23−14
8−2Last 106−4
Isaiah Hartenstein · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Tari Eason
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair63.3%36.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17363%————
HOUHouston Rockets+17337%————
SpreadOKC by 3.5
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−3.5our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets+3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.9
Over224.9our total————
Under224.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 3.5 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%
← OKC wins byHOU wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more35%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.9 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.531%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·HOU
Jan 13 vs SA
last game
Jan 13 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 15, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; injury managementOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
OKC·HOU
+1.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
121.3
points / game
117.9
108.1
points allowed / game
110.8
34−7
season record
23−14
20−3
home record
12−2
14−4
away record
11−12
W4
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
49.2
FG%
48.5
35.7
3P%
37.6
43.9
rebounds / game
49.1
25.7
assists / game
25.1
12.3
turnovers / game
15.6
53.2
points in paint / game
53.4

Rating Trend

OKC · HOU · 78 days
Oklahoma City ThunderHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Oct 21, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 124
Apr 4, 2025at HOUHOU 125 − 111
Mar 3, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 128
Dec 14, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 96
Dec 1, 2024at HOUHOU 119 − 116
Nov 8, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 107
Mar 27, 2024at OKCHOU 132 − 126
Feb 27, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 95
Feb 25, 2024at HOUOKC 123 − 110
Dec 6, 2023at HOUHOU 110 − 101

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W