bayesRatings

Warriors at Timberwolves

NBA · Monday, Jan 26 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final GS 83 – MIN 108
← NBA / Jan 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2018192683
MIN21322233108
Team box
GS·MIN
33-95
field goals
37-81
9-39
3-pointers
14-35
8-13
free throws
20-26
45
rebounds
56
21
assists
29
19
turnovers
22
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN231872
Bones HylandMIN251775
Rudy GobertMIN3515172
Donte DiVincenzoMIN311548
Naz ReidMIN251573
Jaden McDanielsMIN301433

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +32
GS +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 32 · GS 8lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
MIN by 4.2
Expected score
MIN 115.0 – 110.9 GS
Expected total
225.9
WarriorsThe matchupTimberwolves
+159Our fair odds−159
110.9Expected points115.0
+0.34Power rating+0.57
116.7Points / game119.2
113.5Allowed / game115.0
46.3FG%48.2
36.43P%37.4
42.9Rebounds / game44.8
26−21Season record27−19
7−3Last 104−6
Al Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Jimmy Butler III · Jonathan Kuminga
Seth CurryOutEnrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+15939%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−15961%————
SpreadMIN by 4.2
GSGolden State Warriors+4.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.2 expected
Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%
← GS wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more52%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more36%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FGui Santosstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·MIN
Jan 25 at MIN
last game
Jan 25 vs GS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 26, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDraymond Green · left low back; sorenessQuestionable
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; inflammationQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
MINLeonard Miller · low back; spasmsQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
GS·MIN
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.57
116.7
points / game
119.2
113.5
points allowed / game
115.0
26−21
season record
27−19
17−7
home record
15−8
9−14
away record
12−11
W1
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
48.2
36.4
3P%
37.4
42.9
rebounds / game
44.8
28.8
assists / game
26.6
15.3
turnovers / game
14.3
43.7
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

GS · MIN · 89 days
Golden State WarriorsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jan 25at MINGS 111 − 85
Dec 12, 2025at GSMIN 127 − 120
May 14, 2025at MINMIN 121 − 110post
May 12, 2025at GSMIN 117 − 110post
May 10, 2025at GSMIN 102 − 97post
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 117 − 93post
May 6, 2025at MINGS 99 − 88post
Jan 15, 2025at MINGS 116 − 115
Dec 21, 2024at MINGS 113 − 103
Dec 8, 2024at GSGS 114 − 106

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L
Jan 20at UTAH122 − 127L
Jan 17at SA123 − 126L
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W
Jan 6vs MIA122 − 94W