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Raptors at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final TOR 145 – GS 127
← NBA / Jan 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR41293837145
GS28224433127
Team box
TOR·GS
51-86
field goals
47-91
21-34
3-pointers
16-43
22-22
free throws
17-26
37
rebounds
36
42
assists
28
17
turnovers
19
46
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Immanuel QuickleyTOR3440210
Scottie BarnesTOR3926711
Buddy HieldGS192512
Brandon IngramTOR362245
Jonathan KumingaGS212052
Stephen CurryGS251633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +30
TOR +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 0 · TOR 30lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 33%, GS 67% · Updated Jan 20

Expected margin
GS by 6.7
Expected score
GS 114.7 – 108.0 TOR
Expected total
222.7
RaptorsThe matchupWarriors
+206Our fair odds−206
108.0Expected points114.7
−0.15Power rating+0.34
113.5Points / game116.7
112.2Allowed / game113.2
47.0FG%46.3
33.73P%36.5
43.0Rebounds / game43.2
25−19Season record25−19
5−5Last 107−3
Chucky Hepburn · Collin Murray-Boyles
Ja'Kobe Walter · Jakob Poeltl
RJ BarrettOutAl Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · GS chance
Our model fair32.7%67.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+20633%————
GSGolden State Warriors−20667%————
SpreadGS by 6.7
TORToronto Raptors+6.7our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.7
Over222.7our total————
Under222.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.7 expected
Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%
← TOR wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more58%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more43%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJamal Sheadstarted
GGradey Dickstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·GS
Jan 18 at LAL
last game
Jan 19 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 20, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; contusionOut
TORJa'Kobe Walter · right hip; pointerOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower; strainOut
TORRJ Barrett · left ankle; sprainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right knee; acl tearOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDraymond Green · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
GSGui Santos · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
GSWill Richard · right gluteal; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
TOR·GS
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
113.5
points / game
116.7
112.2
points allowed / game
113.2
25−19
season record
25−19
13−10
home record
17−6
12−9
away record
8−13
L2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
47.0
FG%
46.3
33.7
3P%
36.5
43.0
rebounds / game
43.2
29.4
assists / game
28.8
13.8
turnovers / game
15.4
52.6
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

TOR · GS · 83 days
Toronto RaptorsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 5−4
Dec 28, 2025at TORTOR 141 − 127
Mar 20, 2025at GSGS 117 − 114
Jan 13, 2025at TORTOR 104 − 101
Mar 1, 2024at TORGS 120 − 105
Jan 7, 2024at GSTOR 133 − 118
Jan 27, 2023at GSGS 129 − 117
Dec 18, 2022at TORGS 126 − 110
Dec 18, 2021at TORTOR 119 − 100
Nov 21, 2021at GSGS 119 − 104

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 18at LAL93 − 110L
Jan 16vs LAC117 − 121L
Jan 14at IND115 − 101W
Jan 12vs PHI102 − 115L
Jan 11vs PHI116 − 115W
Jan 9at BOS117 − 125L
Jan 7at CHA97 − 96W
Jan 5vs ATL118 − 100W
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W
Dec 31, 2025vs DEN103 − 106L

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L