bayesRatings

76ers at Raptors

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 5:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final PHI 115 – TOR 116
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PHI252336238115
TOR223618319116
Team box
PHI·TOR
41-90
field goals
41-103
8-31
3-pointers
5-32
25-31
free throws
29-39
44
rebounds
48
11
assists
29
22
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI453845
Scottie BarnesTOR433178
Jamal SheadTOR372216
Immanuel QuickleyTOR402057
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR4217153
VJ EdgecombePHI451744

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +14
PHI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: TOR 14 · PHI 9lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, TOR 57% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
TOR by 2.8
Expected score
TOR 114.4 – 111.5 PHI
Expected total
225.9
76ersThe matchupRaptors
+135Our fair odds−135
111.5Expected points114.4
−0.20Power rating−0.12
117.2Points / game114.1
115.5Allowed / game112.2
45.4FG%47.5
35.63P%34.9
44.6Rebounds / game43.1
21−15Season record23−16
6−4Last 106−4
Joel Embiid · Johni Broome
MarJon BeauchampOutBrandon Ingram · Chucky Hepburn
Jakob Poeltl · RJ Barrett

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · TOR chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+13543%————
TORToronto Raptors−13557%————
SpreadTOR by 2.8
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+2.8our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 2.8 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%
← PHI wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more48%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more33%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJamal Sheadstarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·TOR
Jan 9 at ORL
last game
Jan 9 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury management; left groin sorenessOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
Toronto Raptors
TORBrandon Ingram · right thumb; sprainOut
TORChucky Hepburn · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; low back strainOut
TORRJ Barrett · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
PHI·TOR
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
117.2
points / game
114.1
115.5
points allowed / game
112.2
21−15
season record
23−16
10−9
home record
12−8
11−6
away record
11−8
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
45.4
FG%
47.5
35.6
3P%
34.9
44.6
rebounds / game
43.1
24.9
assists / game
29.4
14.0
turnovers / game
13.9
48.7
points in paint / game
52.6

Rating Trend

PHI · TOR · 74 days
Philadelphia 76ersToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Nov 19, 2025at PHITOR 121 − 112
Nov 8, 2025at PHIPHI 130 − 120
Mar 30, 2025at PHITOR 127 − 109
Mar 12, 2025at TORTOR 118 − 105
Feb 11, 2025at PHITOR 106 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at TORTOR 115 − 107
Mar 31, 2024at TORPHI 135 − 120
Dec 22, 2023at PHIPHI 121 − 111
Nov 2, 2023at PHIPHI 114 − 99
Oct 28, 2023at TORPHI 114 − 107

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 9at ORL103 − 91W
Jan 7vs WSH131 − 110W
Jan 5vs DEN124 − 125L
Jan 3at NY130 − 119W
Jan 1at DAL123 − 108W
Dec 30, 2025at MEM139 − 136W
Dec 28, 2025at OKC104 − 129L
Dec 26, 2025at CHI102 − 109L
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 9at BOS117 − 125L
Jan 7at CHA97 − 96W
Jan 5vs ATL118 − 100W
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W
Dec 31, 2025vs DEN103 − 106L
Dec 29, 2025vs ORL107 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L