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Raptors at Pacers

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final TOR 115 – IND 101
← NBA / Jan 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR39282721115
IND18303023101
Team box
TOR·IND
44-89
field goals
33-86
10-28
3-pointers
12-42
17-26
free throws
23-31
49
rebounds
46
30
assists
26
12
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR363074
Scottie BarnesTOR3826713
Pascal SiakamIND3526104
Gradey DickTOR3021113
Andrew NembhardIND321426
Quenton JacksonIND191452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +27
TOR +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 0 · TOR 27lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 45%, IND 55% · Updated Jan 14

Expected margin
IND by 1.1
Expected score
IND 114.0 – 112.9 TOR
Expected total
226.9
RaptorsThe matchupPacers
+121Our fair odds−121
112.9Expected points114.0
−0.13Power rating−0.17
113.9Points / game110.8
112.3Allowed / game118.4
47.1FG%44.4
34.03P%34.7
43.1Rebounds / game42.7
24−17Season record9−31
6−4Last 103−7
Chucky Hepburn · Ja'Kobe Walter
Jakob Poeltl · RJ BarrettOut (4 each)Bennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · IND chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+12145%————
INDIndiana Pacers−12155%————
SpreadIND by 1.1
TORToronto Raptors+1.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.9
Over226.9our total————
Under226.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.1 expected
Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%
← TOR wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more43%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more29%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.531%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJamal Sheadstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FJamison Battlestarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·IND
Jan 12 vs PHI
last game
Jan 12 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 14, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJa'Kobe Walter · right hip; pointerOut
TORJakob Poeltl · lower back; strainOut
TORRJ Barrett · left ankle; sprainOut
TORGarrett Temple · back; spasmsQuestionable
TORImmanuel Quickley · back; spasmsQuestionable
TORSandro Mamukelashvili · illness; illnessQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
TOR·IND
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
113.9
points / game
110.8
112.3
points allowed / game
118.4
24−17
season record
9−31
13−9
home record
7−15
11−8
away record
2−16
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
3−7
47.1
FG%
44.4
34.0
3P%
34.7
43.1
rebounds / game
42.7
29.3
assists / game
24.9
13.9
turnovers / game
14.2
53.0
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

TOR · IND · 77 days
Toronto RaptorsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 4−6
Nov 26, 2025at TORTOR 97 − 95
Nov 15, 2025at INDTOR 129 − 111
Feb 26, 2025at INDIND 111 − 91
Dec 3, 2024at TORTOR 122 − 111
Nov 18, 2024at TORTOR 130 − 119
Apr 9, 2024at TORIND 140 − 123
Feb 26, 2024at INDTOR 130 − 122
Feb 14, 2024at TORIND 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at INDTOR 132 − 131
Mar 22, 2023at TORIND 118 − 114

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 12vs PHI102 − 115L
Jan 11vs PHI116 − 115W
Jan 9at BOS117 − 125L
Jan 7at CHA97 − 96W
Jan 5vs ATL118 − 100W
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W
Dec 31, 2025vs DEN103 − 106L
Dec 29, 2025vs ORL107 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L