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Hornets at Warriors

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final CHA 116 – GS 136
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA28293722116
GS39304324136
Team box
CHA·GS
43-94
field goals
51-93
16-44
3-pointers
23-52
14-17
free throws
11-13
44
rebounds
41
27
assists
34
17
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA302865
Kon KnueppelCHA2924112
De'Anthony MeltonGS212463
Draymond GreenGS272036
Collin SextonCHA241733
Brandin PodziemskiGS301667

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +22
CHA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 22 · CHA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 26%, GS 74% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
GS by 8.9
Expected score
GS 116.0 – 107.0 CHA
Expected total
223.0
HornetsThe matchupWarriors
+290Our fair odds−290
107.0Expected points116.0
−0.60Power rating+0.25
116.6Points / game115.8
116.7Allowed / game113.2
46.2FG%45.9
37.33P%36.1
45.4Rebounds / game43.2
15−26Season record23−19
4−6Last 107−3
Antonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Liam McNeeley · Mason Plumlee
Moussa DiabateOutGui Santos · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons · Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · GS chance
Our model fair25.6%74.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+29026%————
GSGolden State Warriors−29074%————
SpreadGS by 8.9
CHACharlotte Hornets+8.9our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−8.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.0
Over223.0our total————
Under223.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 8.9 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%
← CHA wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more64%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more48%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·GS
Jan 15 at LAL
last game
Jan 15 vs NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · right hamstring; strainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSGui Santos · left ankle; sprainOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
CHA·GS
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
116.6
points / game
115.8
116.7
points allowed / game
113.2
15−26
season record
23−19
7−12
home record
15−6
8−14
away record
8−13
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
45.9
37.3
3P%
36.1
45.4
rebounds / game
43.2
26.6
assists / game
28.4
15.5
turnovers / game
15.5
48.0
points in paint / game
42.8

Rating Trend

CHA · GS · 80 days
Charlotte HornetsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 7−2
Dec 31, 2025at CHAGS 132 − 125
Mar 3, 2025at CHAGS 119 − 101
Feb 25, 2025at GSGS 128 − 92
Mar 29, 2024at CHAGS 115 − 97
Feb 23, 2024at GSGS 97 − 84
Dec 27, 2022at GSGS 110 − 105
Oct 29, 2022at CHACHA 120 − 113
Nov 14, 2021at CHACHA 106 − 102
Nov 3, 2021at GSGS 114 − 92

CHA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W
Jan 8vs IND112 − 114L
Jan 7vs TOR96 − 97L
Jan 5at OKC124 − 97W
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W