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Heat at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Jan 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MIA 112 – GS 135
← NBA / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA34322719112
GS36343431135
Team box
MIA·GS
39-99
field goals
49-95
13-45
3-pointers
24-51
21-24
free throws
13-17
54
rebounds
46
30
assists
38
19
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandin PodziemskiGS302464
Norman PowellMIA302133
Stephen CurryGS2819311
Andrew WigginsMIA271851
Jimmy Butler IIIGS211734
Buddy HieldGS231642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +24
MIA +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 24 · MIA 7lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 39%, GS 61% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
GS by 4.1
Expected score
GS 114.8 – 110.7 MIA
Expected total
225.5
HeatThe matchupWarriors
+157Our fair odds−157
110.7Expected points114.8
+0.02Power rating+0.25
119.5Points / game116.2
117.9Allowed / game113.3
46.7FG%46.1
36.43P%36.3
45.5Rebounds / game43.1
22−20Season record24−19
5−5Last 107−3
Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav GoldinOutDe'Anthony Melton · Gui Santos
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · GS chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+15739%————
GSGolden State Warriors−15761%————
SpreadGS by 4.1
MIAMiami Heat+4.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.5
Over225.5our total————
Under225.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 4.1 expected
Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%
← MIA wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more51%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more36%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·GS
Jan 17 vs OKC
last game
Jan 17 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 19, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; contusionProbable
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left knee; sprainProbable
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSGui Santos · left ankle; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDraymond Green · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
MIA·GS
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
119.5
points / game
116.2
117.9
points allowed / game
113.3
22−20
season record
24−19
15−7
home record
16−6
7−13
away record
8−13
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.7
FG%
46.1
36.4
3P%
36.3
45.5
rebounds / game
43.1
28.5
assists / game
28.6
14.3
turnovers / game
15.5
54.3
points in paint / game
43.1

Rating Trend

MIA · GS · 82 days
Miami HeatGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 4−5
Nov 19, 2025at MIAMIA 110 − 96
Mar 25, 2025at MIAMIA 112 − 86
Jan 7, 2025at GSMIA 114 − 98
Mar 26, 2024at MIAGS 113 − 92
Dec 28, 2023at GSMIA 114 − 102
Nov 1, 2022at MIAMIA 116 − 109
Oct 27, 2022at GSGS 123 − 110
Mar 23, 2022at MIAGS 118 − 104
Jan 3, 2022at GSGS 115 − 108

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W