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Thunder at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final OKC 120 – MIA 122
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC37283025120
MIA30303527122
Team box
OKC·MIA
42-77
field goals
41-111
13-29
3-pointers
20-50
23-28
free throws
20-28
46
rebounds
51
23
assists
30
15
turnovers
4
50
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363943
Bam AdebayoMIA3230124
Norman PowellMIA351944
Aaron WigginsOKC281861
Pelle LarssonMIA301632
Andrew WigginsMIA321555

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
OKC +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 6 · OKC 12lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 73%, MIA 27% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
OKC by 8.4
Expected score
OKC 118.4 – 110.0 MIA
Expected total
228.4
ThunderThe matchupHeat
−273Our fair odds+273
118.4Expected points110.0
+1.27Power rating+0.02
121.1Points / game119.4
107.7Allowed / game117.8
49.1FG%47.0
35.83P%36.3
43.9Rebounds / game45.3
35−7Season record21−20
8−2Last 105−5
Isaiah Hartenstein · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutDavion Mitchell · Jahmir Young
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MIA chance
Our model fair73.2%26.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−27373%————
MIAMiami Heat+27327%————
SpreadOKC by 8.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our total————
Under228.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 1%Miami Heat by 9 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMIA wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more47%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MIA
Jan 15 at HOU
last game
Jan 15 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Miami Heat
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; contusionOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · head; illnessQuestionable
MIATyler Herro · right big toe/rib; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
OKC·MIA
+1.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
121.1
points / game
119.4
107.7
points allowed / game
117.8
35−7
season record
21−20
20−3
home record
14−7
15−4
away record
7−13
W5
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
49.1
FG%
47.0
35.8
3P%
36.3
43.9
rebounds / game
45.3
25.7
assists / game
28.5
12.3
turnovers / game
14.5
52.9
points in paint / game
54.7

Rating Trend

OKC · MIA · 80 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 4−5
Jan 11at OKCOKC 124 − 112
Feb 12, 2025at OKCOKC 115 − 101
Dec 20, 2024at MIAOKC 104 − 97
Mar 8, 2024at OKCOKC 107 − 100
Jan 10, 2024at MIAOKC 128 − 120
Jan 10, 2023at MIAMIA 112 − 111
Dec 14, 2022at OKCMIA 110 − 108
Mar 18, 2022at MIAMIA 120 − 108
Nov 15, 2021at OKCMIA 103 − 90

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W