bayesRatings

Warriors at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Jan 22 · 6:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final GS 115 – DAL 123
← NBA / Jan 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS27233926115
DAL24312939123
Team box
GS·DAL
43-96
field goals
43-86
15-46
3-pointers
13-35
14-18
free throws
24-30
35
rebounds
54
29
assists
25
10
turnovers
22
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS343841
Naji MarshallDAL343079
De'Anthony MeltonGS232232
Cooper FlaggDAL3021112
Max ChristieDAL362142
Brandon WilliamsDAL271954

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +12
GS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 12 · GS 7lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 57%, DAL 43% · Updated Jan 22

Expected margin
GS by 2.7
Expected score
GS 115.2 – 112.6 DAL
Expected total
227.8
WarriorsThe matchupMavericks
−133Our fair odds+133
115.2Expected points112.6
+0.34Power rating−0.18
116.9Points / game114.2
114.0Allowed / game116.6
46.4FG%47.5
36.63P%34.1
43.0Rebounds / game44.7
25−20Season record18−26
7−3Last 106−4
Jimmy Butler III · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons · Seth CurryOut (4 each)Anthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.1%42.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−13357%————
DALDallas Mavericks+13343%————
SpreadGS by 2.7
GSGolden State Warriors−2.7our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.8
Over227.8our total————
Under227.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.7 expected
Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← GS wins byDAL wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more47%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more33%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.8 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DAL
Jan 20 vs TOR
last game
Jan 19 at NY
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 22, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right knee; acl tearOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSGary Payton II · right foot; sorenessQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · illness; illnessProbable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
GS·DAL
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
116.9
points / game
114.2
114.0
points allowed / game
116.6
25−20
season record
18−26
17−7
home record
13−11
8−13
away record
5−15
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
6−4
46.4
FG%
47.5
36.6
3P%
34.1
43.0
rebounds / game
44.7
28.8
assists / game
25.5
15.5
turnovers / game
15.2
43.5
points in paint / game
53.3

Rating Trend

GS · DAL · 85 days
Golden State WarriorsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Dec 25, 2025at GSGS 126 − 116
Feb 23, 2025at GSGS 126 − 102
Feb 12, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 107
Dec 15, 2024at GSDAL 143 − 133
Nov 12, 2024at GSGS 120 − 117
Apr 5, 2024at DALDAL 108 − 106
Apr 2, 2024at GSGS 104 − 100
Mar 13, 2024at DALDAL 109 − 99
Dec 30, 2023at GSDAL 132 − 122
Mar 22, 2023at DALGS 127 − 125

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L
Jan 6at SAC100 − 98W
Jan 3vs HOU110 − 104W
Jan 1vs PHI108 − 123L