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Nuggets at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 14 · 8:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final DEN 118 – DAL 109
← NBA / Jan 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN29342530118
DAL23233231109
Team box
DEN·DAL
42-85
field goals
41-93
16-38
3-pointers
5-34
18-22
free throws
22-33
39
rebounds
47
21
assists
16
9
turnovers
6
46
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN383325
Naji MarshallDAL382453
Aaron GordonDEN302263
Brandon WilliamsDAL252071
Peyton WatsonDEN311852
Caleb MartinDAL231543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +23
DEN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 3 · DEN 23lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 62%, DAL 38% · Updated Jan 14

Expected margin
DEN by 4.5
Expected score
DEN 120.2 – 115.8 DAL
Expected total
236.0
NuggetsThe matchupMavericks
−164Our fair odds+164
120.2Expected points115.8
+0.48Power rating−0.25
122.7Points / game113.0
117.5Allowed / game116.8
50.3FG%47.1
39.93P%33.8
43.0Rebounds / game44.5
27−13Season record15−25
5−5Last 104−6
Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Jonas Valanciunas · Nikola Jokic
Tamar BatesOutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · DAL chance
Our model fair62.1%37.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−16462%————
DALDallas Mavericks+16438%————
SpreadDEN by 4.5
DENDenver Nuggets−4.5our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.5 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byDAL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more52%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more37%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GJaden Hardystarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·DAL
Jan 13 at NO
last game
Jan 12 vs BKN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 14, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENBruce Brown · right knee; inflammationQuestionable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprain/illnessQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENSpencer Jones · left ankle; inflammation/illnessProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMax Christie · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALP.J. Washington · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
DEN·DAL
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
122.7
points / game
113.0
117.5
points allowed / game
116.8
27−13
season record
15−25
11−6
home record
11−10
16−7
away record
4−15
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
50.3
FG%
47.1
39.9
3P%
33.8
43.0
rebounds / game
44.5
28.6
assists / game
25.2
13.1
turnovers / game
15.5
49.5
points in paint / game
53.1

Rating Trend

DEN · DAL · 77 days
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Dec 23, 2025at DALDAL 131 − 130
Dec 1, 2025at DENDAL 131 − 121
Jan 14, 2025at DALDEN 118 − 99
Jan 12, 2025at DALDEN 112 − 101
Nov 22, 2024at DENDAL 123 − 120
Nov 10, 2024at DENDEN 122 − 120
Mar 17, 2024at DALDAL 107 − 105
Dec 18, 2023at DENDEN 130 − 104
Nov 3, 2023at DENDEN 125 − 114
Feb 15, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 109

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L
Jan 6at SAC100 − 98W
Jan 3vs HOU110 − 104W
Jan 1vs PHI108 − 123L
Dec 29, 2025at POR122 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L
Dec 25, 2025at GS116 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W