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Nuggets at Pelicans

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final DEN 122 – NO 116
← NBA / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN32282933122
NO31342724116
Team box
DEN·NO
41-84
field goals
39-86
14-35
3-pointers
11-29
26-32
free throws
27-31
32
rebounds
51
24
assists
21
7
turnovers
15
38
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN373529
Peyton WatsonDEN393175
Trey Murphy IIINO343152
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN331842
Saddiq BeyNO321742
Aaron GordonDEN301671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +11
DEN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 11 · DEN 6lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 74%, NO 26% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
DEN by 9.6
Expected score
DEN 125.3 – 115.8 NO
Expected total
241.1
NuggetsThe matchupPelicans
−282Our fair odds+282
125.3Expected points115.8
+0.48Power rating−0.80
122.7Points / game114.9
117.5Allowed / game122.4
50.3FG%46.4
39.83P%34.1
43.2Rebounds / game43.0
26−13Season record9−32
5−5Last 101−9
Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola JokicOutDejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose Alvarado

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · NO chance
Our model fair73.8%26.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−28274%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+28226%————
SpreadDEN by 9.6
DENDenver Nuggets−9.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.1
Over241.1our total————
Under241.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 9.6 expected
Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← DEN wins byNO wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more67%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.1 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.567%
Total over 241.548%
Total over 251.530%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·NO
Jan 11 vs MIL
last game
Jan 11 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 13, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprain/illnessQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENSpencer Jones · left ankle; inflammation/illnessProbable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; strainOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
DEN·NO
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
122.7
points / game
114.9
117.5
points allowed / game
122.4
26−13
season record
9−32
11−6
home record
6−17
15−7
away record
3−15
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
1−9
50.3
FG%
46.4
39.8
3P%
34.1
43.2
rebounds / game
43.0
28.7
assists / game
25.0
13.2
turnovers / game
14.9
49.8
points in paint / game
58.1

Rating Trend

DEN · NO · 76 days
Denver NuggetsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Nov 19, 2025at NODEN 125 − 118
Oct 29, 2025at DENDEN 122 − 88
Feb 5, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 119
Feb 3, 2025at DENDEN 125 − 113
Dec 22, 2024at NODEN 132 − 129
Nov 15, 2024at NONO 101 − 94
Jan 12, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 113
Nov 17, 2023at NONO 115 − 110
Nov 6, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 116
Mar 30, 2023at DENNO 107 − 88

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L