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Jazz at Mavericks

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 4:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final UTAH 120 – DAL 138
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH29303526120
DAL42293532138
Team box
UTAH·DAL
48-89
field goals
49-91
10-31
3-pointers
18-41
14-20
free throws
22-36
41
rebounds
44
30
assists
36
15
turnovers
11
54
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH372916
Brice SensabaughUTAH302562
Klay ThompsonDAL202303
Brandon WilliamsDAL282245
Max ChristieDAL262224
Ace BaileyUTAH371881

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +23
UTAH +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 23 · UTAH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 33%, DAL 67% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
DAL by 6.1
Expected score
DAL 123.2 – 117.1 UTAH
Expected total
240.3
JazzThe matchupMavericks
+207Our fair odds−207
117.1Expected points123.2
−0.76Power rating−0.25
119.3Points / game113.6
127.4Allowed / game117.0
46.5FG%47.3
34.93P%33.5
44.3Rebounds / game44.6
14−27Season record16−26
2−8Last 104−6
Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Lauri Markkanen
Oscar TshiebweOut (5 each)Anthony Davis · Cooper Flagg
D'Angelo Russell · Daniel Gafford
Dante Exum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · DAL chance
Our model fair32.5%67.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+20733%————
DALDallas Mavericks−20767%————
SpreadDAL by 6.1
UTAHUtah Jazz+6.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.3
Over240.3our total————
Under240.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 6.1 expected
Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more57%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more41%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.3 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.567%
Total over 240.548%
Total over 250.530%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·DAL
Jan 15 at DAL
last game
Jan 15 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALCooper Flagg · left ankle; sprainOut
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALP.J. Washington · personal reasonsOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
UTAH·DAL
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
119.3
points / game
113.6
127.4
points allowed / game
117.0
14−27
season record
16−26
9−12
home record
12−11
5−15
away record
4−15
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
46.5
FG%
47.3
34.9
3P%
33.5
44.3
rebounds / game
44.6
30.1
assists / game
25.3
15.8
turnovers / game
15.2
51.2
points in paint / game
53.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · DAL · 80 days
Utah JazzDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Jan 15at DALDAL 144 − 122
Jan 8at UTAHUTAH 116 − 114
Dec 15, 2025at UTAHUTAH 140 − 133
Nov 30, 2024at UTAHDAL 106 − 94
Nov 14, 2024at UTAHUTAH 115 − 113
Oct 28, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 102
Mar 25, 2024at UTAHDAL 115 − 105
Mar 21, 2024at DALDAL 113 − 97
Jan 1, 2024at UTAHUTAH 127 − 90
Dec 6, 2023at DALDAL 147 − 97

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jan 15at DAL122 − 144L
Jan 14at CHI126 − 128L
Jan 12at CLE123 − 112W
Jan 10vs CHA95 − 150L
Jan 8vs DAL116 − 114W
Jan 7at OKC125 − 129L
Jan 5at POR117 − 137L
Jan 3at GS114 − 123L
Jan 1at LAC101 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025vs BOS119 − 129L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L
Jan 6at SAC100 − 98W
Jan 3vs HOU110 − 104W
Jan 1vs PHI108 − 123L
Dec 29, 2025at POR122 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L