bayesRatings

Jazz at Bulls

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 14 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final UTAH 126 – CHI 128

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH39233232126
CHI36352334128
Team box
UTAH·CHI
47-86
field goals
47-92
8-28
3-pointers
17-43
24-27
free throws
17-21
36
rebounds
43
30
assists
36
13
turnovers
13
72
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brice SensabaughUTAH344352
Nikola VucevicCHI313575
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH342537
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH311974
Ayo DosunmuCHI281526
Patrick WilliamsCHI231353

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +12
UTAH +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 12 · UTAH 4lead changes: 26

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 32%, CHI 68% · Updated Jan 14

Expected margin
CHI by 5.9
Expected score
CHI 127.1 – 121.2 UTAH
Expected total
248.3
JazzThe matchupBulls
+214Our fair odds−214
121.2Expected points127.1
−0.76Power rating−0.22
119.1Points / game117.2
126.9Allowed / game120.8
46.3FG%47.2
35.23P%35.8
44.7Rebounds / game45.6
14−25Season record18−21
4−6Last 104−6
Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Kevin Love
Lauri Markkanen
Out (5 each)Emanuel Miller · Josh Giddey
Lachlan Olbrich · Noa Essengue
Yuki Kawamura

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · CHI chance
Our model fair31.8%68.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+21432%————
CHIChicago Bulls−21468%————
SpreadCHI by 5.9
UTAHUtah Jazz+5.9our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 248.3
Over248.3our total————
Under248.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 5.9 expected
Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more56%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more41%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

248.3 expected
195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: <1%211 points: <1%212 points: <1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 2%260 points: 2%261 points: 2%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: 1%281 points: 1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%311 points: <1%312 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 238.566%
Total over 248.548%
Total over 258.531%
Total from 239 to 25835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GAce Baileystarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GCoby Whitestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·CHI
Jan 12 at CLE
last game
Jan 13 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 14, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · restOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; strainOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHIJulian Phillips · right wrist; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
UTAH·CHI
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
119.1
points / game
117.2
126.9
points allowed / game
120.8
14−25
season record
18−21
9−12
home record
11−9
5−13
away record
7−12
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
47.2
35.2
3P%
35.8
44.7
rebounds / game
45.6
30.1
assists / game
29.3
15.8
turnovers / game
14.6
50.3
points in paint / game
54.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · CHI · 77 days
Utah JazzChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 6−3
Nov 16, 2025at UTAHUTAH 150 − 147
Mar 17, 2025at UTAHCHI 111 − 97
Nov 4, 2024at CHIUTAH 135 − 126
Mar 6, 2024at UTAHCHI 119 − 117
Nov 6, 2023at CHICHI 130 − 113
Jan 7, 2023at CHICHI 126 − 118
Nov 28, 2022at UTAHCHI 114 − 107
Mar 16, 2022at UTAHUTAH 125 − 110
Oct 30, 2021at CHICHI 107 − 99

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 12at CLE123 − 112W
Jan 10vs CHA95 − 150L
Jan 8vs DAL116 − 114W
Jan 7at OKC125 − 129L
Jan 5at POR117 − 137L
Jan 3at GS114 − 123L
Jan 1at LAC101 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025vs BOS119 − 129L
Dec 27, 2025at SA127 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025vs DET131 − 129W

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 13at HOU113 − 119L
Jan 10vs DAL125 − 107W
Jan 7at DET93 − 108L
Jan 5at BOS101 − 115L
Jan 3vs CHA99 − 112L
Jan 2vs ORL121 − 114W
Dec 31, 2025vs NO134 − 118W
Dec 29, 2025vs MIN101 − 136L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIL103 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHI109 − 102W