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Pacers at Thunder

NBA · Friday, Jan 23 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final IND 117 – OKC 114
← NBA / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND39193128117
OKC28253229114
Team box
IND·OKC
45-96
field goals
40-82
16-38
3-pointers
7-26
11-20
free throws
27-30
51
rebounds
41
34
assists
18
11
turnovers
9
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC354744
Andrew NembhardIND3627711
Jarace WalkerIND312643
Chet HolmgrenOKC3325133
Pascal SiakamIND372166
Aaron NesmithIND361755

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +17
IND +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 2 · IND 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 14%, OKC 86% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
OKC by 16.5
Expected score
OKC 121.7 – 105.2 IND
Expected total
226.9
PacersThe matchupThunder
+605Our fair odds−605
105.2Expected points121.7
−0.25Power rating+1.34
109.9Points / game121.4
118.3Allowed / game107.8
44.2FG%49.5
34.23P%36.4
42.8Rebounds / game43.8
10−35Season record37−8
4−6Last 107−3
Bennedict Mathurin · Obi Toppin
Taelon Peter · Tyrese HaliburtonOutAaron Wiggins · Ajay Mitchell
Alex Caruso · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jalen Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · OKC chance
Our model fair14.2%85.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+60514%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−60586%————
SpreadOKC by 16.5
INDIndiana Pacers+16.5our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.9
Over226.9our total————
Under226.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 16.5 expected
Indiana Pacers by 53 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 52 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← IND wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more81%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more70%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more55%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.531%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·OKC
Jan 21 at BOS
last game
Jan 21 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 23, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayProbable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · right groin; sorenessOut
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
IND·OKC
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
109.9
points / game
121.4
118.3
points allowed / game
107.8
10−35
season record
37−8
8−16
home record
20−3
2−19
away record
17−5
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
44.2
FG%
49.5
34.2
3P%
36.4
42.8
rebounds / game
43.8
25.2
assists / game
25.7
14.4
turnovers / game
12.2
44.6
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

IND · OKC · 86 days
Indiana PacersOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Oct 23, 2025at INDOKC 141 − 135
Jun 22, 2025at OKCOKC 103 − 91post
Jun 19, 2025at INDIND 108 − 91post
Jun 16, 2025at OKCOKC 120 − 109post
Jun 13, 2025at INDOKC 111 − 104post
Jun 11, 2025at INDIND 116 − 107post
Jun 8, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 107post
Jun 5, 2025at OKCIND 111 − 110post
Mar 29, 2025at OKCOKC 132 − 111
Dec 26, 2024at INDOKC 120 − 114

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L