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Pacers at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final IND 104 – BOS 119
← NBA / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND20263226104
BOS30362528119
Team box
IND·BOS
37-94
field goals
42-88
12-45
3-pointers
12-31
18-23
free throws
23-25
42
rebounds
54
31
assists
24
14
turnovers
16
40
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND3332104
Jaylen BrownBOS3430105
Jarace WalkerIND291932
Sam HauserBOS281763
Neemias QuetaBOS291790
Derrick WhiteBOS301355

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +23
IND +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 23 · IND 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 22%, BOS 78% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
BOS by 12.1
Expected score
BOS 117.5 – 105.4 IND
Expected total
222.8
PacersThe matchupCeltics
+344Our fair odds−344
105.4Expected points117.5
−0.25Power rating+0.77
110.1Points / game116.7
118.3Allowed / game110.0
44.3FG%47.3
34.43P%36.9
42.8Rebounds / game44.9
10−34Season record26−16
4−6Last 106−4
Bennedict Mathurin · Obi Toppin
Tyrese HaliburtonOutJayson Tatum · Josh Minott

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · BOS chance
Our model fair22.5%77.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+34422%————
BOSBoston Celtics−34478%————
SpreadBOS by 12.1
INDIndiana Pacers+12.1our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.8
Over222.8our total————
Under222.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 12.1 expected
Indiana Pacers by 53 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 52 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 53 points: <1%
← IND wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more71%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more57%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more42%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·BOS
Jan 19 at PHI
last game
Jan 19 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 21, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
BOSJaylen Brown · left hamstring; tightnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
IND·BOS
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.77
110.1
points / game
116.7
118.3
points allowed / game
110.0
10−34
season record
26−16
8−16
home record
12−7
2−18
away record
14−9
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
44.3
FG%
47.3
34.4
3P%
36.9
42.8
rebounds / game
44.9
25.0
assists / game
23.6
14.4
turnovers / game
12.0
44.7
points in paint / game
44.0

Rating Trend

IND · BOS · 84 days
Indiana PacersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Jan 12at INDIND 98 − 96
Dec 26, 2025at INDBOS 140 − 122
Dec 22, 2025at BOSBOS 103 − 95
Dec 29, 2024at BOSIND 123 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at BOSBOS 142 − 105
Oct 30, 2024at INDIND 135 − 132
May 27, 2024at INDBOS 105 − 102post
May 25, 2024at INDBOS 114 − 111post
May 23, 2024at BOSBOS 126 − 110post
May 21, 2024at BOSBOS 133 − 128post

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 19at DET103 − 104L
Jan 17at ATL132 − 106W
Jan 15at MIA119 − 114W
Jan 12at IND96 − 98L
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W