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Pelicans at Pacers

NBA · Friday, Jan 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final NO 119 – IND 127
← NBA / Jan 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO33332726119
IND31422925127
Team box
NO·IND
41-82
field goals
52-101
13-31
3-pointers
15-43
24-30
free throws
8-12
42
rebounds
43
22
assists
37
9
turnovers
7
54
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jay HuffIND292991
Zion WilliamsonNO332767
Pascal SiakamIND342765
Trey Murphy IIINO382245
Saddiq BeyNO322041
Andrew NembhardIND3319310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +16
NO +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 16 · NO 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 30%, IND 70% · Updated Jan 16

Expected margin
IND by 6.3
Expected score
IND 120.1 – 113.8 NO
Expected total
233.9
PelicansThe matchupPacers
+233Our fair odds−233
113.8Expected points120.1
−0.80Power rating−0.17
114.9Points / game110.6
122.2Allowed / game118.3
46.3FG%44.3
34.23P%34.5
43.5Rebounds / game42.8
10−33Season record9−32
2−8Last 103−7
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose AlvaradoOut (4 each)Bennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · IND chance
Our model fair30.0%70.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+23330%————
INDIndiana Pacers−23370%————
SpreadIND by 6.3
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.3our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.9
Over233.9our total————
Under233.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 6.3 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more57%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more42%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.9 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.550%
Total over 243.531%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·IND
Jan 14 vs BKN
last game
Jan 14 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 16, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; strainOut
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDKam Jones · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
NO·IND
−0.80
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
114.9
points / game
110.6
122.2
points allowed / game
118.3
10−33
season record
9−32
7−18
home record
7−16
3−15
away record
2−16
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
3−7
46.3
FG%
44.3
34.2
3P%
34.5
43.5
rebounds / game
42.8
24.8
assists / game
24.9
14.7
turnovers / game
14.1
58.2
points in paint / game
44.5

Rating Trend

NO · IND · 79 days
New Orleans PelicansIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Dec 20, 2025at NONO 128 − 109
Dec 15, 2024at INDIND 119 − 104
Nov 25, 2024at INDIND 114 − 110
Nov 1, 2024at NONO 125 − 118
Mar 1, 2024at NONO 129 − 102
Feb 28, 2024at INDIND 123 − 114
Dec 26, 2022at NONO 113 − 93
Nov 7, 2022at INDIND 129 − 122
Jan 24, 2022at NONO 117 − 113
Nov 20, 2021at INDIND 111 − 94

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W
Jan 13vs DEN116 − 122L
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L