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Pacers at Pistons

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 6:30 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final IND 78 – DET 121
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND1114282578
DET31283329121
Team box
IND·DET
28-79
field goals
46-93
8-35
3-pointers
16-34
14-27
free throws
13-19
42
rebounds
51
18
assists
32
25
turnovers
19
40
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET211635
Duncan RobinsonDET221622
Javonte GreenDET201630
Jalen DurenDET231584
Jarace WalkerIND261352
Tony BradleyIND181231

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +46
IND +46
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 46 · IND 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 32%, DET 68% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
DET by 7.4
Expected score
DET 118.2 – 110.8 IND
Expected total
228.9
PacersThe matchupPistons
+214Our fair odds−214
110.8Expected points118.2
−0.17Power rating+0.37
111.0Points / game117.6
118.3Allowed / game111.1
44.4FG%48.3
34.53P%34.9
42.8Rebounds / game46.3
10−32Season record29−10
4−6Last 106−4
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Bennedict Mathurin · Obi Toppin
Pascal SiakamOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · DET chance
Our model fair31.8%68.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+21432%————
DETDetroit Pistons−21468%————
SpreadDET by 7.4
INDIndiana Pacers+7.4our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 7.4 expected
Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%
← IND wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more60%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more44%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GBen Sheppardstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·DET
Jan 16 vs NO
last game
Jan 15 vs PHX
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · restOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · lower back; injury managementOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDPascal Siakam · restOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left knee, elbow; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayProbable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayProbable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETAusar Thompson · right heel; contusionProbable
DETCade Cunningham · right wrist; contusionProbable
DETPaul Reed · personal reasonsProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
IND·DET
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
111.0
points / game
117.6
118.3
points allowed / game
111.1
10−32
season record
29−10
8−16
home record
16−4
2−16
away record
13−6
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
44.4
FG%
48.3
34.5
3P%
34.9
42.8
rebounds / game
46.3
25.2
assists / game
26.6
13.9
turnovers / game
16.0
45.0
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

IND · DET · 80 days
Indiana PacersDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Nov 24, 2025at INDDET 122 − 117
Nov 17, 2025at DETDET 127 − 112
Jan 29, 2025at INDIND 133 − 119
Jan 16, 2025at DETIND 111 − 100
Nov 29, 2024at INDDET 130 − 106
Oct 23, 2024at DETIND 115 − 109
Mar 20, 2024at DETIND 122 − 103
Feb 22, 2024at INDIND 129 − 115
Dec 11, 2023at DETIND 131 − 123
Nov 24, 2023at INDIND 136 − 113

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W