bayesRatings

Celtics at Pistons

NBA · Monday, Jan 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final BOS 103 – DET 104
← NBA / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS29223121103
DET26332520104
Team box
BOS·DET
33-83
field goals
38-88
13-41
3-pointers
11-35
24-30
free throws
17-23
45
rebounds
41
13
assists
24
14
turnovers
8
32
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS3932112
Tobias HarrisDET352531
Jalen DurenDET311891
Payton PritchardBOS341733
Cade CunninghamDET4016314
Sam HauserBOS271651

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +14
BOS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 14 · BOS 7lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 54%, DET 46% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
BOS by 0.9
Expected score
BOS 111.9 – 111.0 DET
Expected total
222.8
CelticsThe matchupPistons
−115Our fair odds+115
111.9Expected points111.0
+0.75Power rating+0.37
117.0Points / game117.7
110.1Allowed / game110.2
47.5FG%48.3
37.03P%35.2
44.9Rebounds / game46.4
26−15Season record30−10
7−3Last 106−4
Amari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Josh Minott · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.OutIsaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · DET chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−11554%————
DETDetroit Pistons+11546%————
SpreadBOS by 0.9
BOSBoston Celtics−0.9our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.8
Over222.8our total————
Under222.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 0.9 expected
Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%
← BOS wins byDET wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more42%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more29%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

222.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·DET
Jan 17 at ATL
last game
Jan 17 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 19, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
BOSChris Boucher · management low back; spasmsProbable
Detroit Pistons
DETIsaac Jones · coach's decisionOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETRonald Holland II · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
BOS·DET
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
117.0
points / game
117.7
110.1
points allowed / game
110.2
26−15
season record
30−10
12−7
home record
17−4
14−8
away record
13−6
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
47.5
FG%
48.3
37.0
3P%
35.2
44.9
rebounds / game
46.4
23.9
assists / game
26.8
12.0
turnovers / game
16.1
44.3
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

BOS · DET · 82 days
Boston CelticsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Dec 15, 2025at BOSDET 112 − 105
Nov 26, 2025at BOSBOS 117 − 114
Oct 26, 2025at DETDET 119 − 113
Feb 26, 2025at DETDET 117 − 97
Dec 12, 2024at BOSBOS 123 − 99
Dec 4, 2024at BOSBOS 130 − 120
Oct 26, 2024at DETBOS 124 − 118
Mar 22, 2024at DETBOS 129 − 102
Mar 18, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 94
Dec 28, 2023at BOSBOS 128 − 122

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 17at ATL132 − 106W
Jan 15at MIA119 − 114W
Jan 12at IND96 − 98L
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L