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Thunder at Cavaliers

NBA · Monday, Jan 19 · 1:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final OKC 136 – CLE 104
← NBA / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC32342545136
CLE27242825104
Team box
OKC·CLE
50-90
field goals
34-91
23-47
3-pointers
8-35
13-20
free throws
28-35
38
rebounds
54
32
assists
20
13
turnovers
21
42
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC343013
Chet HolmgrenOKC312882
Donovan MitchellCLE351943
Luguentz DortOKC341853
Jaylon TysonCLE3316104
Evan MobleyCLE311675

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +32
OKC +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 2 · OKC 32lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 65%, CLE 35% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
OKC by 4.5
Expected score
OKC 119.1 – 114.6 CLE
Expected total
233.7
ThunderThe matchupCavaliers
−186Our fair odds+186
119.1Expected points114.6
+1.27Power rating+0.41
121.1Points / game120.0
108.0Allowed / game117.4
49.3FG%47.5
36.03P%36.1
44.0Rebounds / game44.3
35−8Season record24−19
7−3Last 107−3
Brooks Barnhizer · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOut (5 each)Chris Livingston · Darius Garland
Luke Travers · Max Strus
Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair65.1%34.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−18665%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+18635%————
SpreadOKC by 4.5
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4.5our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.5 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byCLE wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more52%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more37%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·CLE
Jan 17 at MIA
last game
Jan 16 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 19, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring;Out
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDarius Garland · strain right great toe; sprainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
OKC·CLE
+1.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
121.1
points / game
120.0
108.0
points allowed / game
117.4
35−8
season record
24−19
20−3
home record
14−10
15−5
away record
10−9
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
7−3
49.3
FG%
47.5
36.0
3P%
36.1
44.0
rebounds / game
44.3
25.6
assists / game
28.8
12.3
turnovers / game
14.3
52.8
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

OKC · CLE · 82 days
Oklahoma City ThunderCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 4−4
Jan 16, 2025at OKCOKC 134 − 114
Jan 8, 2025at CLECLE 129 − 122
Nov 8, 2023at OKCOKC 128 − 120
Oct 27, 2023at CLEOKC 108 − 105
Jan 27, 2023at OKCOKC 112 − 100
Dec 10, 2022at CLECLE 110 − 102
Jan 22, 2022at CLECLE 94 − 87
Jan 15, 2022at OKCCLE 107 − 102

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 16at PHI117 − 115W
Jan 14at PHI133 − 107W
Jan 12vs UTAH112 − 123L
Jan 10vs MIN146 − 134W
Jan 8at MIN122 − 131L
Jan 6at IND120 − 116W
Jan 4vs DET110 − 114L
Jan 2vs DEN113 − 108W
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025at SA113 − 101W