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Thunder at Bucks

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 8:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final OKC 122 – MIL 102
← NBA / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC38313023122
MIL18332625102
Team box
OKC·MIL
49-90
field goals
40-81
14-36
3-pointers
16-41
10-15
free throws
6-9
42
rebounds
39
24
assists
30
8
turnovers
16
58
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC3340711
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3119147
Kenrich WilliamsOKC281882
Ajay MitchellOKC251832
Cole AnthonyMIL241733
Bobby PortisMIL371569

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +25
OKC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 0 · OKC 25lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 77%, MIL 23% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
OKC by 10.4
Expected score
OKC 118.9 – 108.5 MIL
Expected total
227.3
ThunderThe matchupBucks
−329Our fair odds+329
118.9Expected points108.5
+1.34Power rating−0.11
121.4Points / game112.4
108.0Allowed / game115.6
49.4FG%48.4
36.33P%39.5
43.8Rebounds / game40.4
36−8Season record18−24
7−3Last 105−5
Aaron Wiggins · Alex Caruso
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Jaylin WilliamsOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Myles Turner · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MIL chance
Our model fair76.7%23.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−32977%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+32923%————
SpreadOKC by 10.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−10.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.3
Over227.3our total————
Under227.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 10.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMIL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more69%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more53%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.3 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Harrisstarted
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MIL
Jan 19 at CLE
last game
Jan 19 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 21, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · right groin; sorenessOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · left glut; contusionOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · oblique muscle; strainOut
MILMyles Turner · left ankle; sprainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
OKC·MIL
+1.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
121.4
points / game
112.4
108.0
points allowed / game
115.6
36−8
season record
18−24
20−3
home record
9−10
16−5
away record
9−14
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
49.4
FG%
48.4
36.3
3P%
39.5
43.8
rebounds / game
40.4
25.8
assists / game
26.2
12.3
turnovers / game
14.8
52.6
points in paint / game
44.5

Rating Trend

OKC · MIL · 84 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 6−3
Mar 16, 2025at MILOKC 121 − 105
Feb 3, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 96
Dec 17, 2024at OKCMIL 97 − 81
Apr 12, 2024at OKCOKC 125 − 107
Mar 24, 2024at MILMIL 118 − 93
Nov 9, 2022at OKCMIL 136 − 132
Nov 5, 2022at MILMIL 108 − 94
Mar 8, 2022at OKCMIL 142 − 115
Nov 19, 2021at MILMIL 96 − 89

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W