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Timberwolves at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MIN 118 – DAL 105
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN31273426118
DAL29192730105
Team box
MIN·DAL
43-94
field goals
38-84
12-34
3-pointers
3-18
20-27
free throws
26-39
42
rebounds
50
26
assists
22
12
turnovers
19
52
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN343154
Naz ReidMIN282383
P.J. WashingtonDAL342172
Anthony EdwardsMIN382066
Naji MarshallDAL321861
Brandon WilliamsDAL241753

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +17
MIN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 3 · MIN 17lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, DAL 40% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
MIN by 4.1
Expected score
MIN 116.6 – 112.5 DAL
Expected total
229.2
TimberwolvesThe matchupMavericks
−153Our fair odds+153
116.6Expected points112.5
+0.47Power rating−0.18
119.0Points / game114.3
114.3Allowed / game116.5
48.1FG%47.4
37.43P%34.1
45.1Rebounds / game44.9
28−19Season record19−27
4−6Last 106−4
Enrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.OutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DAL chance
Our model fair60.5%39.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−15360%————
DALDallas Mavericks+15340%————
SpreadMIN by 4.1
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.1 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDAL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more51%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more36%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DAL
Jan 26 vs GS
last game
Jan 24 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALCooper Flagg · left ankle; injury managementQuestionable
DALKlay Thompson · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
MIN·DAL
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
119.0
points / game
114.3
114.3
points allowed / game
116.5
28−19
season record
19−27
16−8
home record
14−12
12−11
away record
5−15
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
48.1
FG%
47.4
37.4
3P%
34.1
45.1
rebounds / game
44.9
26.7
assists / game
25.4
14.5
turnovers / game
15.2
50.1
points in paint / game
53.3

Rating Trend

MIN · DAL · 91 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Nov 17, 2025at MINMIN 120 − 96
Jan 22, 2025at DALMIN 115 − 114
Dec 25, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 99
Oct 29, 2024at MINDAL 120 − 114
May 30, 2024at MINDAL 124 − 103post
May 28, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 100post
May 26, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 107post
May 24, 2024at MINDAL 109 − 108post
May 22, 2024at MINDAL 108 − 105post
Jan 31, 2024at MINMIN 121 − 87

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L
Jan 20at UTAH122 − 127L
Jan 17at SA123 − 126L
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W
Jan 10at CLE134 − 146L
Jan 8vs CLE131 − 122W

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L
Jan 6at SAC100 − 98W