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Lakers at Mavericks

NBA · Saturday, Jan 24 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final LAL 116 – DAL 110
← NBA / Jan 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL37281437116
DAL28243523110
Team box
LAL·DAL
40-90
field goals
39-94
14-34
3-pointers
10-29
22-29
free throws
22-29
57
rebounds
43
26
assists
22
16
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3933811
Max ChristieDAL352423
Naji MarshallDAL3721112
Brandon WilliamsDAL232044
LeBron JamesLAL371785
Rui HachimuraLAL271781

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +15
LAL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 15 · LAL 14lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 52%, DAL 48% · Updated Jan 24

Expected margin
LAL by 0.3
Expected score
LAL 115.3 – 115.0 DAL
Expected total
230.3
LakersThe matchupMavericks
−108Our fair odds+108
115.3Expected points115.0
+0.13Power rating−0.18
116.0Points / game114.4
116.4Allowed / game116.6
49.6FG%47.5
35.03P%34.1
41.2Rebounds / game44.9
26−17Season record19−26
4−6Last 107−3
Adou Thiero · Austin ReavesOutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10852%————
DALDallas Mavericks+10848%————
SpreadLAL by 0.3
LALLos Angeles Lakers−0.3our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.3
Over230.3our total————
Under230.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 0.3 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%
← LAL wins byDAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more41%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more27%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·DAL
Jan 22 at LAC
last game
Jan 22 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 24, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainProbable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
LAL·DAL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
116.0
points / game
114.4
116.4
points allowed / game
116.6
26−17
season record
19−26
12−8
home record
14−11
14−9
away record
5−15
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
49.6
FG%
47.5
35.0
3P%
34.1
41.2
rebounds / game
44.9
24.9
assists / game
25.5
15.0
turnovers / game
15.3
51.3
points in paint / game
53.4

Rating Trend

LAL · DAL · 87 days
Los Angeles LakersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Nov 28, 2025at LALLAL 129 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at DALLAL 112 − 97
Feb 25, 2025at LALLAL 107 − 99
Jan 7, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 97
Jan 17, 2024at LALLAL 127 − 110
Dec 12, 2023at DALDAL 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at LALDAL 104 − 101
Mar 17, 2023at LALDAL 111 − 110
Feb 26, 2023at DALLAL 111 − 108
Jan 12, 2023at LALDAL 119 − 115

LAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L
Jan 20at DEN115 − 107W
Jan 18vs TOR110 − 93W
Jan 17at POR116 − 132L
Jan 15vs CHA117 − 135L
Jan 13vs ATL141 − 116W
Jan 12at SAC112 − 124L
Jan 9vs MIL101 − 105L
Jan 7at SA91 − 107L
Jan 6at NO111 − 103W

DAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L
Jan 6at SAC100 − 98W
Jan 3vs HOU110 − 104W