bayesRatings

Lakers at Trail Blazers

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final LAL 116 – POR 132
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL27342926116
POR40313625132
Team box
LAL·POR
42-85
field goals
45-86
13-31
3-pointers
16-42
19-21
free throws
26-34
27
rebounds
42
25
assists
24
15
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shaedon SharpePOR292534
Marcus SmartLAL252520
Caleb LovePOR312217
Jerami GrantPOR222232
Drew TimmeLAL292124
LeBron JamesLAL322098

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +24
LAL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 24 · LAL 4lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 52%, POR 48% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
LAL by 1.0
Expected score
LAL 115.6 – 114.6 POR
Expected total
230.2
LakersThe matchupTrail Blazers
−107Our fair odds+107
115.6Expected points114.6
+0.14Power rating−0.16
116.5Points / game115.9
116.9Allowed / game118.4
49.8FG%44.8
34.63P%33.8
41.3Rebounds / game45.4
24−15Season record20−22
5−5Last 107−3
Adou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Jaxson Hayes · Luka DoncicOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Deni Avdija · Kris Murray
Matisse Thybulle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · POR chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10752%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+10748%————
SpreadLAL by 1.0
LALLos Angeles Lakers−1our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.2
Over230.2our total————
Under230.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%
← LAL wins byPOR wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more42%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more29%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.2 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GGabe Vincentstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FMaxi Kleberstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·POR
Jan 15 vs CHA
last game
Jan 15 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · tendinopathy left calf; strainOut
LALJaxson Hayes · left hamstring;Out
LALLuka Doncic · left groin; sorenessOut
LALDeandre Ayton · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDeni Avdija · lower back; strainOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; injury managementProbable
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
LAL·POR
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
116.5
points / game
115.9
116.9
points allowed / game
118.4
24−15
season record
20−22
11−8
home record
11−10
13−7
away record
9−12
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
49.8
FG%
44.8
34.6
3P%
33.8
41.3
rebounds / game
45.4
24.9
assists / game
24.6
15.2
turnovers / game
16.8
51.5
points in paint / game
47.8

Rating Trend

LAL · POR · 80 days
Los Angeles LakersPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 3−7
Nov 3, 2025at PORLAL 123 − 115
Oct 27, 2025at LALPOR 122 − 108
Apr 13, 2025at PORPOR 109 − 81
Feb 20, 2025at PORLAL 110 − 102
Jan 2, 2025at LALLAL 114 − 106
Dec 8, 2024at LALLAL 107 − 98
Jan 21, 2024at LALLAL 134 − 110
Nov 17, 2023at PORLAL 107 − 95
Nov 12, 2023at LALLAL 116 − 110
Feb 13, 2023at PORPOR 127 − 115

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 15vs CHA117 − 135L
Jan 13vs ATL141 − 116W
Jan 12at SAC112 − 124L
Jan 9vs MIL101 − 105L
Jan 7at SA91 − 107L
Jan 6at NO111 − 103W
Jan 4vs MEM120 − 114W
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W
Dec 30, 2025vs DET106 − 128L
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 15vs ATL117 − 101W
Jan 13at GS97 − 119L
Jan 11vs NY114 − 123L
Jan 9vs HOU111 − 105W
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W