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Lakers at Nuggets

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LAL 115 – DEN 107
← NBA / Jan 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL28292929115
DEN37341719107
Team box
LAL·DEN
42-83
field goals
39-87
10-25
3-pointers
15-37
21-32
free throws
14-19
51
rebounds
31
24
assists
27
13
turnovers
5
54
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL36381310
Jamal MurrayDEN3628211
LeBron JamesLAL341998
Aaron GordonDEN321845
Peyton WatsonDEN381853
Spencer JonesDEN371650

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +16
LAL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 16 · LAL 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 36%, DEN 64% · Updated Jan 20

Expected margin
DEN by 4.7
Expected score
DEN 120.1 – 115.4 LAL
Expected total
235.5
LakersThe matchupNuggets
+174Our fair odds−174
115.4Expected points120.1
+0.13Power rating+0.45
116.3Points / game121.7
116.7Allowed / game117.0
49.7FG%50.1
34.93P%39.5
41.1Rebounds / game42.4
25−16Season record29−14
5−5Last 106−4
Adou Thiero · Austin ReavesOutCameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+17436%————
DENDenver Nuggets−17464%————
SpreadDEN by 4.7
LALLos Angeles Lakers+4.7our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.7 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%
← LAL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more53%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more38%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·DEN
Jan 18 vs TOR
last game
Jan 18 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 20, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · inflammation/illness right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENJamal Murray · left knee;Probable
DENTim Hardaway Jr. · right knee; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
LAL·DEN
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
116.3
points / game
121.7
116.7
points allowed / game
117.0
25−16
season record
29−14
12−8
home record
12−7
13−8
away record
17−7
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
49.7
FG%
50.1
34.9
3P%
39.5
41.1
rebounds / game
42.4
25.0
assists / game
28.3
15.2
turnovers / game
12.8
51.2
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

LAL · DEN · 83 days
Los Angeles LakersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Mar 19, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 108
Mar 14, 2025at DENDEN 131 − 126
Feb 22, 2025at DENLAL 123 − 100
Nov 23, 2024at LALDEN 127 − 102
Apr 29, 2024at DENDEN 108 − 106post
Apr 27, 2024at LALLAL 119 − 108post
Apr 25, 2024at LALDEN 112 − 105post
Apr 22, 2024at DENDEN 101 − 99post
Apr 20, 2024at DENDEN 114 − 103post
Mar 2, 2024at LALDEN 124 − 114

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 18vs TOR110 − 93W
Jan 17at POR116 − 132L
Jan 15vs CHA117 − 135L
Jan 13vs ATL141 − 116W
Jan 12at SAC112 − 124L
Jan 9vs MIL101 − 105L
Jan 7at SA91 − 107L
Jan 6at NO111 − 103W
Jan 4vs MEM120 − 114W
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L