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Hornets at Nuggets

NBA · Sunday, Jan 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final CHA 110 – DEN 87
← NBA / Jan 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA33272723110
DEN1816233087
Team box
CHA·DEN
44-89
field goals
32-79
11-34
3-pointers
8-38
11-13
free throws
15-18
52
rebounds
29
30
assists
21
13
turnovers
8
62
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA242341
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA231761
Jamal MurrayDEN251612
Julian StrawtherDEN201522
Collin SextonCHA201425
Kon KnueppelCHA271443

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +33
CHA +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 0 · CHA 33lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 21%, DEN 79% · Updated Jan 18

Expected margin
DEN by 10.1
Expected score
DEN 121.5 – 111.4 CHA
Expected total
232.8
HornetsThe matchupNuggets
+366Our fair odds−366
111.4Expected points121.5
−0.60Power rating+0.48
116.6Points / game122.5
117.1Allowed / game117.2
46.2FG%50.3
37.33P%39.9
45.3Rebounds / game42.7
15−27Season record29−13
4−6Last 107−3
Antonio Reeves · Grant Williams
KJ Simpson · Liam McNeeley
Mason PlumleeOut (5 each)Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · DEN chance
Our model fair21.5%78.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+36621%————
DENDenver Nuggets−36679%————
SpreadDEN by 10.1
CHACharlotte Hornets+10.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−10.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 10.1 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 52 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 52 points: <1%
← CHA wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more67%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more52%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·DEN
Jan 17 at GS
last game
Jan 17 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 18, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · right hamstring; strainProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainQuestionable
DENBruce Brown · right knee; inflammationProbable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprain/illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
CHA·DEN
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
116.6
points / game
122.5
117.1
points allowed / game
117.2
15−27
season record
29−13
7−12
home record
12−6
8−15
away record
17−7
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
50.3
37.3
3P%
39.9
45.3
rebounds / game
42.7
26.6
assists / game
28.5
15.6
turnovers / game
13.0
48.0
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

CHA · DEN · 81 days
Charlotte HornetsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 8−1
Dec 7, 2025at CHADEN 115 − 106
Feb 20, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 115
Feb 1, 2025at CHADEN 107 − 104
Jan 1, 2024at DENDEN 111 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at CHADEN 102 − 95
Feb 11, 2023at CHADEN 119 − 105
Dec 18, 2022at DENDEN 119 − 115
Mar 28, 2022at CHADEN 113 − 109
Dec 23, 2021at DENCHA 115 − 107

CHA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W
Jan 8vs IND112 − 114L
Jan 7vs TOR96 − 97L
Jan 5at OKC124 − 97W
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W