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Raptors at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Jan 25 · 6:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final TOR 103 – OKC 101
← NBA / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR25292524103
OKC30203120101
Team box
TOR·OKC
37-86
field goals
33-75
12-34
3-pointers
11-43
17-26
free throws
24-31
51
rebounds
37
28
assists
21
11
turnovers
11
44
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC352436
Immanuel QuickleyTOR3223112
Luguentz DortOKC361982
Kenrich WilliamsOKC281551
RJ BarrettTOR211462
Brandon IngramTOR361354

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +7
TOR +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 7 · TOR 7lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 15%, OKC 85% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
OKC by 15.4
Expected score
OKC 119.2 – 103.8 TOR
Expected total
223.0
RaptorsThe matchupThunder
+549Our fair odds−549
103.8Expected points119.2
−0.15Power rating+1.34
114.3Points / game121.3
112.2Allowed / game108.0
47.4FG%49.5
34.43P%36.2
43.1Rebounds / game43.7
28−19Season record37−9
6−4Last 107−3
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob PoeltlOutAjay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · OKC chance
Our model fair15.4%84.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+54915%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−54985%————
SpreadOKC by 15.4
TORToronto Raptors+15.4our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−15.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.0
Over223.0our total————
Under223.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 15.4 expected
Toronto Raptors by 53 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 52 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 51 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 50 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← TOR wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more79%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more51%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·OKC
Jan 23 at POR
last game
Jan 23 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 25, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower; strainOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; contusionQuestionable
TORImmanuel Quickley · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
TORJa'Kobe Walter · right hip; pointerQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAaron Wiggins · right hip; impingementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
TOR·OKC
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
114.3
points / game
121.3
112.2
points allowed / game
108.0
28−19
season record
37−9
13−10
home record
20−4
15−9
away record
17−5
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
49.5
34.4
3P%
36.2
43.1
rebounds / game
43.7
29.6
assists / game
25.5
13.9
turnovers / game
12.2
52.8
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

TOR · OKC · 88 days
Toronto RaptorsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · OKC 6−2
Feb 7, 2025at OKCOKC 121 − 109
Dec 5, 2024at TOROKC 129 − 92
Mar 22, 2024at TOROKC 123 − 103
Feb 4, 2024at OKCOKC 135 − 127
Mar 16, 2023at TORTOR 128 − 111
Nov 11, 2022at OKCOKC 132 − 113
Feb 9, 2022at OKCTOR 117 − 98
Dec 8, 2021at TOROKC 110 − 109

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 23at POR110 − 98W
Jan 21at SAC122 − 109W
Jan 20at GS145 − 127W
Jan 18at LAL93 − 110L
Jan 16vs LAC117 − 121L
Jan 14at IND115 − 101W
Jan 12vs PHI102 − 115L
Jan 11vs PHI116 − 115W
Jan 9at BOS117 − 125L
Jan 7at CHA97 − 96W

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W
Jan 9at MEM117 − 116W
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L