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Raptors at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final TOR 122 – SAC 109
← NBA / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR26264327122
SAC30312127109
Team box
TOR·SAC
43-94
field goals
41-88
13-33
3-pointers
9-33
23-25
free throws
18-22
47
rebounds
45
30
assists
25
11
turnovers
16
54
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR322387
Brandon IngramTOR352334
Russell WestbrookSAC352333
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR322294
Zach LaVineSAC381915
Immanuel QuickleyTOR361868

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +19
TOR +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 12 · TOR 19lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 51%, SAC 49% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
TOR by 1.6
Expected score
TOR 114.4 – 112.8 SAC
Expected total
227.2
RaptorsThe matchupKings
−106Our fair odds+106
114.4Expected points112.8
−0.15Power rating−0.45
114.2Points / game110.8
112.6Allowed / game120.7
47.3FG%46.8
34.33P%35.1
42.9Rebounds / game40.8
26−19Season record12−32
6−4Last 104−6
Chucky Hepburn · Collin Murray-Boyles
Ja'Kobe Walter · Jakob Poeltl
RJ BarrettOutDaeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Isaiah Stevens · Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SAC chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−10651%————
SACSacramento Kings+10649%————
SpreadTOR by 1.6
TORToronto Raptors−1.6our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 1.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%
← TOR wins bySAC wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more44%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more30%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJamal Sheadstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SAC
Jan 20 at GS
last game
Jan 20 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 21, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; contusionOut
TORJa'Kobe Walter · right hip; pointerOut
TORJakob Poeltl · lower back; strainOut
TORRJ Barrett · left ankle; sprainOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; injury managementOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACPrecious Achiuwa · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
TOR·SAC
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
114.2
points / game
110.8
112.6
points allowed / game
120.7
26−19
season record
12−32
13−10
home record
9−15
13−9
away record
3−17
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
47.3
FG%
46.8
34.3
3P%
35.1
42.9
rebounds / game
40.8
29.7
assists / game
25.2
13.9
turnovers / game
14.4
52.5
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

TOR · SAC · 84 days
Toronto RaptorsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SAC 4−4
Nov 6, 2024at SACSAC 122 − 107
Nov 2, 2024at TORTOR 131 − 128
Mar 20, 2024at TORSAC 123 − 89
Jan 5, 2024at SACSAC 135 − 130
Jan 25, 2023at SACTOR 113 − 95
Dec 14, 2022at TORSAC 124 − 123
Dec 13, 2021at TORTOR 124 − 101
Nov 19, 2021at SACTOR 108 − 89

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 20at GS145 − 127W
Jan 18at LAL93 − 110L
Jan 16vs LAC117 − 121L
Jan 14at IND115 − 101W
Jan 12vs PHI102 − 115L
Jan 11vs PHI116 − 115W
Jan 9at BOS117 − 125L
Jan 7at CHA97 − 96W
Jan 5vs ATL118 − 100W
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 20vs MIA117 − 130L
Jan 18vs POR110 − 117L
Jan 16vs WSH128 − 115W
Jan 14vs NY112 − 101W
Jan 12vs LAL124 − 112W
Jan 11vs HOU111 − 98W
Jan 9at GS103 − 137L
Jan 6vs DAL98 − 100L
Jan 4vs MIL98 − 115L
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L