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Heat at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final MIA 130 – SAC 117
← NBA / Jan 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA32452330130
SAC25392528117
Team box
MIA·SAC
47-98
field goals
44-87
21-42
3-pointers
11-30
15-24
free throws
18-21
46
rebounds
49
33
assists
27
10
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA302575
DeMar DeRozanSAC352345
Russell WestbrookSAC312227
Norman PowellMIA312232
Andrew WigginsMIA301932
Zach LaVineSAC221815

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 2 · MIA 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 56%, SAC 44% · Updated Jan 20

Expected margin
MIA by 3.1
Expected score
MIA 117.2 – 114.2 SAC
Expected total
231.4
HeatThe matchupKings
−126Our fair odds+126
117.2Expected points114.2
+0.02Power rating−0.45
119.3Points / game110.6
118.3Allowed / game120.5
46.6FG%46.7
36.23P%35.1
45.7Rebounds / game40.7
22−21Season record12−31
4−6Last 104−6
Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav GoldinOutDaeqwon Plowden · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · SAC chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−12656%————
SACSacramento Kings+12644%————
SpreadMIA by 3.1
MIAMiami Heat−3.1our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.4
Over231.4our total————
Under231.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.1 expected
Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%
← MIA wins bySAC wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more48%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more34%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.4 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·SAC
Jan 19 at GS
last game
Jan 18 vs POR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 20, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
MIA·SAC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
119.3
points / game
110.6
118.3
points allowed / game
120.5
22−21
season record
12−31
15−7
home record
9−14
7−14
away record
3−17
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
46.7
36.2
3P%
35.1
45.7
rebounds / game
40.7
28.5
assists / game
25.2
14.4
turnovers / game
14.4
54.3
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

MIA · SAC · 83 days
Miami HeatSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SAC 5−4
Dec 6, 2025at MIASAC 127 − 111
Jan 6, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 118
Nov 4, 2024at MIASAC 111 − 110
Feb 26, 2024at SACMIA 121 − 110
Jan 31, 2024at MIAMIA 115 − 106
Nov 2, 2022at MIAMIA 110 − 107
Oct 29, 2022at SACSAC 119 − 113
Mar 28, 2022at MIAMIA 123 − 100
Jan 2, 2022at SACSAC 115 − 113

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 18vs POR110 − 117L
Jan 16vs WSH128 − 115W
Jan 14vs NY112 − 101W
Jan 12vs LAL124 − 112W
Jan 11vs HOU111 − 98W
Jan 9at GS103 − 137L
Jan 6vs DAL98 − 100L
Jan 4vs MIL98 − 115L
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L
Jan 1vs BOS106 − 120L