bayesRatings

Thunder at Spurs

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final OKC 106 – SA 116
← NBA / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC26322721106
SA39342221116
Team box
OKC·SA
37-93
field goals
45-101
19-47
3-pointers
14-42
13-14
free throws
12-20
46
rebounds
63
26
assists
26
14
turnovers
14
26
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kenrich WilliamsOKC352592
Keldon JohnsonSA292562
Jaylin WilliamsOKC4024124
Victor WembanyamaSA2822142
Aaron WigginsOKC382046
De'Aaron FoxSA3315410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 22 · OKC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 68%, SA 32% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
OKC by 7.1
Expected score
OKC 117.8 – 110.7 SA
Expected total
228.5
ThunderThe matchupSpurs
−210Our fair odds+210
117.8Expected points110.7
+1.19Power rating+0.22
120.5Points / game116.8
107.7Allowed / game112.1
49.2FG%47.4
35.93P%34.6
43.7Rebounds / game46.0
40−11Season record33−17
6−4Last 106−4
Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Chet Holmgren · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jalen WilliamsOutDavid Jones Garcia · Jeremy Sochan
Lindy Waters III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · SA chance
Our model fair67.8%32.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−21068%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+21032%————
SpreadOKC by 7.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−7.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+7.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 7.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins bySA wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more60%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more44%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamsstarted
GIsaiah Joestarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·SA
Feb 3 vs ORL
last game
Feb 1 vs ORL
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 4, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; injury managementOut
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right eye; corneal abrasionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right patellofemoral joint; inflammationOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · not with teamOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; strainOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SADylan Harper · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
SAKelly Olynyk · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · left adductor; tightnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
OKC·SA
+1.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
120.5
points / game
116.8
107.7
points allowed / game
112.1
40−11
season record
33−17
22−5
home record
17−6
18−6
away record
16−11
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
49.2
FG%
47.4
35.9
3P%
34.6
43.7
rebounds / game
46.0
25.6
assists / game
26.0
12.3
turnovers / game
13.6
51.5
points in paint / game
49.7

Rating Trend

OKC · SA · 98 days
Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 5−5
Jan 13at OKCOKC 119 − 98
Dec 25, 2025at OKCSA 117 − 102
Dec 23, 2025at SASA 130 − 110
Dec 13, 2025at OKCSA 111 − 109
Mar 2, 2025at SAOKC 146 − 132
Nov 19, 2024at SASA 110 − 104
Oct 30, 2024at OKCOKC 105 − 93
Apr 10, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 89
Feb 29, 2024at SASA 132 − 118
Jan 24, 2024at SAOKC 140 − 114

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L