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Magic at Thunder

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final ORL 92 – OKC 128
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL1427272492
OKC39292634128
Team box
ORL·OKC
34-89
field goals
48-93
13-41
3-pointers
12-35
11-11
free throws
20-26
38
rebounds
52
21
assists
33
16
turnovers
11
26
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Isaiah JoeOKC232200
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC282059
Jalen SuggsORL252036
Luguentz DortOKC311851
Paolo BancheroORL331734
Chet HolmgrenOKC2716101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +41
ORL +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 41 · ORL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 20%, OKC 80% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
OKC by 13.7
Expected score
OKC 116.8 – 103.1 ORL
Expected total
219.8
MagicThe matchupThunder
+410Our fair odds−410
103.1Expected points116.8
−0.01Power rating+1.19
115.5Points / game120.3
115.6Allowed / game108.0
46.4FG%49.1
33.83P%36.0
43.8Rebounds / game43.5
25−23Season record39−11
4−6Last 106−4
Colin Castleton · Franz WagnerOutAjay Mitchell · Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic · Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · OKC chance
Our model fair19.6%80.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+41020%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−41080%————
SpreadOKC by 13.7
ORLOrlando Magic+13.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−13.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.8
Over219.8our total————
Under219.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 13.7 expected
Orlando Magic by 53 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 52 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 51 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← ORL wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more75%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more61%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more46%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.8 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.570%
Total over 219.550%
Total over 229.531%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·OKC
Feb 1 at SA
last game
Feb 1 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainQuestionable
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsQuestionable
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · n/a; illnessQuestionable
OKCJaylin Williams · left shoulder; contusionQuestionable
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · right index finger; sprain / illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
ORL·OKC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+1.19
115.5
points / game
120.3
115.6
points allowed / game
108.0
25−23
season record
39−11
15−9
home record
21−5
10−14
away record
18−6
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
46.4
FG%
49.1
33.8
3P%
36.0
43.8
rebounds / game
43.5
26.3
assists / game
25.4
13.9
turnovers / game
12.3
53.1
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

ORL · OKC · 97 days
Orlando MagicOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · OKC 6−2
Dec 19, 2024at ORLOKC 105 − 99
Nov 4, 2024at OKCOKC 102 − 86
Feb 13, 2024at ORLOKC 127 − 113
Jan 13, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 100
Jan 4, 2023at ORLORL 126 − 115
Nov 1, 2022at OKCOKC 116 − 108
Mar 23, 2022at OKCOKC 118 − 102
Mar 20, 2022at ORLORL 90 − 85

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 1at SA103 − 112L
Jan 30vs TOR130 − 120W
Jan 28at MIA133 − 124W
Jan 26at CLE98 − 114L
Jan 24vs CLE105 − 119L
Jan 22vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 18at MEM109 − 126L
Jan 15vs MEM118 − 111W
Jan 11vs NO128 − 118W
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W