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Magic at Heat

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final ORL 133 – MIA 124
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL34254034133
MIA27412036124
Team box
ORL·MIA
52-104
field goals
44-88
16-38
3-pointers
15-34
13-17
free throws
21-23
42
rebounds
48
36
assists
27
7
turnovers
18
62
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL3831124
Anthony BlackORL372675
Simone FontecchioMIA202352
Desmond BaneORL372315
Norman PowellMIA282221
Bam AdebayoMIA3921127

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +17
ORL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 11 · ORL 17lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 41%, MIA 59% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
MIA by 3.5
Expected score
MIA 113.3 – 109.8 ORL
Expected total
223.2
MagicThe matchupHeat
+141Our fair odds−141
109.8Expected points113.3
−0.05Power rating+0.08
115.0Points / game119.7
115.4Allowed / game118.0
46.3FG%46.4
33.33P%36.0
44.2Rebounds / game46.2
23−22Season record25−22
4−6Last 105−5
Colin Castleton · Franz WagnerOutJahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+14141%————
MIAMiami Heat−14159%————
SpreadMIA by 3.5
ORLOrlando Magic+3.5our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.2
Over223.2our total————
Under223.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.5 expected
Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%
← ORL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more50%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more35%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

223.2 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·MIA
Jan 26 at CLE
last game
Jan 25 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; sprainDoubtful
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; strainQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · low back; tightnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
ORL·MIA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
115.0
points / game
119.7
115.4
points allowed / game
118.0
23−22
season record
25−22
14−9
home record
15−7
9−13
away record
10−15
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
46.3
FG%
46.4
33.3
3P%
36.0
44.2
rebounds / game
46.2
26.1
assists / game
28.6
14.1
turnovers / game
14.3
53.3
points in paint / game
54.2

Rating Trend

ORL · MIA · 91 days
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Dec 9, 2025at ORLORL 117 − 108
Dec 5, 2025at ORLORL 106 − 105
Oct 22, 2025at ORLORL 125 − 121
Jan 27, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 119
Dec 26, 2024at ORLMIA 89 − 88
Dec 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at MIAORL 116 − 97
Feb 6, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 95
Jan 21, 2024at ORLORL 105 − 87
Jan 12, 2024at MIAMIA 99 − 96

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 26at CLE98 − 114L
Jan 24vs CLE105 − 119L
Jan 22vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 18at MEM109 − 126L
Jan 15vs MEM118 − 111W
Jan 11vs NO128 − 118W
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L
Jan 7at BKN104 − 103W
Jan 6at WSH112 − 120L
Jan 4vs IND135 − 127W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L