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Heat at Trail Blazers

NBA · Thursday, Jan 22 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final MIA 110 – POR 127
← NBA / Jan 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA31322918110
POR38263924127
Team box
MIA·POR
43-94
field goals
48-96
9-45
3-pointers
20-50
15-19
free throws
11-13
40
rebounds
50
27
assists
26
15
turnovers
20
60
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA3732102
Shaedon SharpePOR342773
Deni AvdijaPOR182074
Caleb LovePOR342044
Norman PowellMIA281801
Simone FontecchioMIA251743

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +21
MIA +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 21 · MIA 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 47%, POR 53% · Updated Jan 22

Expected margin
POR by 0.0
Expected score
POR 115.3 – 115.3 MIA
Expected total
230.6
HeatThe matchupTrail Blazers
+111Our fair odds−111
115.3Expected points115.3
+0.02Power rating−0.10
119.5Points / game116.2
118.2Allowed / game118.2
46.6FG%45.1
36.53P%33.7
45.7Rebounds / game45.2
23−21Season record22−22
4−6Last 108−2
Jahmir Young · Kel'el Ware
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOut (5 each)Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Kris Murray · Matisse Thybulle
Scoot Henderson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · POR chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+11147%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−11153%————
SpreadPOR by 0.0
MIAMiami HeatPKour margin————
PORPortland Trail BlazersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more40%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more27%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·POR
Jan 20 at SAC
last game
Jan 18 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 22, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder;Questionable
MIANorman Powell · contusion low back; tightnessProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; injury managementQuestionable
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; injury managementQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
PORSidy Cissoko · illness; .Questionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
MIA·POR
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
119.5
points / game
116.2
118.2
points allowed / game
118.2
23−21
season record
22−22
15−7
home record
12−10
8−14
away record
10−12
W1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
46.6
FG%
45.1
36.5
3P%
33.7
45.7
rebounds / game
45.2
28.6
assists / game
24.4
14.3
turnovers / game
16.8
54.1
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

MIA · POR · 85 days
Miami HeatPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · POR 2−7
Nov 8, 2025at MIAMIA 136 − 131
Jan 21, 2025at MIAPOR 116 − 107
Jan 11, 2025at PORMIA 119 − 98
Mar 29, 2024at MIAMIA 142 − 82
Feb 27, 2024at PORMIA 106 − 96
Nov 7, 2022at MIAPOR 110 − 107
Oct 26, 2022at PORMIA 119 − 98
Jan 19, 2022at MIAMIA 104 − 92
Jan 5, 2022at PORMIA 115 − 109

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L

POR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jan 18at SAC117 − 110W
Jan 17vs LAL132 − 116W
Jan 15vs ATL117 − 101W
Jan 13at GS97 − 119L
Jan 11vs NY114 − 123L
Jan 9vs HOU111 − 105W
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W