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Heat at Jazz

NBA · Saturday, Jan 24 · 8:30 PM CT · Delta Center · Final MIA 147 – UTAH 116
← NBA / Jan 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA35383539147
UTAH34183727116
Team box
MIA·UTAH
47-108
field goals
44-92
19-47
3-pointers
7-25
34-42
free throws
21-28
64
rebounds
34
35
assists
36
14
turnovers
14
54
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA3126152
Brice SensabaughUTAH232341
Nikola JovicMIA252331
Pelle LarssonMIA252023
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH361925
Jusuf NurkicUTAH31171012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +34
MIA +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 7 · MIA 34lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 64%, UTAH 36% · Updated Jan 24

Expected margin
MIA by 7.0
Expected score
MIA 125.2 – 118.2 UTAH
Expected total
243.4
HeatThe matchupJazz
−182Our fair odds+182
125.2Expected points118.2
+0.02Power rating−0.82
119.3Points / game119.1
118.4Allowed / game127.4
46.6FG%46.8
36.23P%35.1
45.5Rebounds / game44.2
23−22Season record15−30
4−6Last 103−7
Jahmir Young · Kel'el Ware
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOut (5 each)Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Kevin Love
Lauri Markkanen

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair64.5%35.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−18264%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+18236%————
SpreadMIA by 7.0
MIAMiami Heat−7our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+7our margin————
Totalwe expect 243.4
Over243.4our total————
Under243.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 7.0 expected
Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%
← MIA wins byUTAH wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more60%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

243.4 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 233.567%
Total over 243.548%
Total over 253.531%
Total from 234 to 25336%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FCody Williamsstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·UTAH
Jan 22 at POR
last game
Jan 22 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 24, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; sprainDoubtful
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · left knee; contusionOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · return to competition reconditioningOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
MIA·UTAH
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
119.3
points / game
119.1
118.4
points allowed / game
127.4
23−22
season record
15−30
15−7
home record
10−13
8−15
away record
5−17
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
46.6
FG%
46.8
36.2
3P%
35.1
45.5
rebounds / game
44.2
28.6
assists / game
30.2
14.3
turnovers / game
15.8
54.2
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

MIA · UTAH · 87 days
Miami HeatUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · UTAH 2−6
Jan 9, 2025at UTAHMIA 97 − 92
Jan 4, 2025at MIAUTAH 136 − 100
Mar 2, 2024at MIAMIA 126 − 120
Dec 30, 2023at UTAHUTAH 117 − 109
Mar 13, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 115
Dec 31, 2022at UTAHMIA 126 − 123
Nov 13, 2021at UTAHMIA 111 − 105
Nov 6, 2021at MIAMIA 118 − 115

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 22vs SA109 − 126L
Jan 20vs MIN127 − 122W
Jan 19at SA110 − 123L
Jan 17at DAL120 − 138L
Jan 15at DAL122 − 144L
Jan 14at CHI126 − 128L
Jan 12at CLE123 − 112W
Jan 10vs CHA95 − 150L
Jan 8vs DAL116 − 114W
Jan 7at OKC125 − 129L