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Heat at Suns

NBA · Sunday, Jan 25 · 7:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final MIA 111 – PHX 102
← NBA / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA32262429111
PHX21272925102
Team box
MIA·PHX
39-93
field goals
37-100
9-35
3-pointers
7-35
24-29
free throws
21-26
59
rebounds
56
21
assists
14
12
turnovers
11
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX362652
Bam AdebayoMIA322271
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA362056
Grayson AllenPHX351863
Norman PowellMIA3116101
Nikola JovicMIA181261

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +18
MIA +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 2 · MIA 18lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, PHX 59% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
PHX by 3.0
Expected score
PHX 115.4 – 112.4 MIA
Expected total
227.8
HeatThe matchupSuns
+146Our fair odds−146
112.4Expected points115.4
+0.02Power rating+0.17
119.9Points / game114.4
118.4Allowed / game111.8
46.5FG%46.2
36.33P%36.4
45.9Rebounds / game43.1
24−22Season record27−18
4−6Last 106−4
Kel'el Ware · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav GoldinOutDevin Booker

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PHX chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+14641%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−14659%————
SpreadPHX by 3.0
MIAMiami Heat+3our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.8
Over227.8our total————
Under227.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 3.0 expected
Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%
← MIA wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more48%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more34%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.8 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PHX
Jan 24 at UTAH
last game
Jan 23 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 25, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; sprainDoubtful
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · facial; contusionQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · low back; tightnessQuestionable
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left hamstring; tightnessProbable
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; sprainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
MIA·PHX
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
119.9
points / game
114.4
118.4
points allowed / game
111.8
24−22
season record
27−18
15−7
home record
14−5
9−15
away record
13−13
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
46.5
FG%
46.2
36.3
3P%
36.4
45.9
rebounds / game
43.1
28.7
assists / game
25.2
14.3
turnovers / game
15.4
54.2
points in paint / game
44.7

Rating Trend

MIA · PHX · 88 days
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHX 4−5
Jan 13at MIAMIA 127 − 121
Dec 7, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 111
Nov 6, 2024at PHXPHX 115 − 112
Jan 29, 2024at MIAPHX 118 − 105
Jan 5, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 97
Jan 6, 2023at PHXMIA 104 − 96
Nov 14, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 112
Mar 9, 2022at MIAPHX 111 − 90
Jan 8, 2022at PHXMIA 123 − 100

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 23at ATL103 − 110L
Jan 20at PHI116 − 110W
Jan 19at BKN126 − 117W
Jan 17at NY106 − 99W
Jan 15at DET105 − 108L
Jan 13at MIA121 − 127L
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W
Jan 9vs NY112 − 107W
Jan 7at MEM117 − 98W
Jan 5at HOU97 − 100L