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Thunder at Nuggets

NBA · Sunday, Feb 1 · 8:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final OKC 121 – DEN 111
← NBA / Feb 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC32303920121
DEN26293026111
Team box
OKC·DEN
40-85
field goals
39-79
19-48
3-pointers
16-35
22-27
free throws
17-24
39
rebounds
39
23
assists
29
13
turnovers
18
30
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC3334513
Peyton WatsonDEN372953
Cason WallaceOKC302760
Nikola JokicDEN291678
Aaron WigginsOKC251460
Chet HolmgrenOKC281441

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
OKC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 0 · OKC 18lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 64%, DEN 36% · Updated Feb 1

Expected margin
OKC by 6.2
Expected score
OKC 119.6 – 113.5 DEN
Expected total
233.1
ThunderThe matchupNuggets
−180Our fair odds+180
119.6Expected points113.5
+1.23Power rating+0.42
120.3Points / game120.1
108.0Allowed / game115.6
49.2FG%49.7
35.93P%39.7
43.6Rebounds / game42.5
38−11Season record33−16
6−4Last 107−3
Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutAaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Curtis Jones · Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair64.2%35.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−18064%————
DENDenver Nuggets+18036%————
SpreadOKC by 6.2
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6.2our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our total————
Under233.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.2 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDEN wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more57%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more41%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DEN
Jan 29 at MIN
last game
Jan 30 vs LAC
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 1, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · right adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; inflammation/left hip inflammationProbable
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
OKC·DEN
+1.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
120.3
points / game
120.1
108.0
points allowed / game
115.6
38−11
season record
33−16
21−5
home record
14−9
17−6
away record
19−7
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
7−3
49.2
FG%
49.7
35.9
3P%
39.7
43.6
rebounds / game
42.5
25.5
assists / game
28.0
12.3
turnovers / game
12.5
51.8
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

OKC · DEN · 95 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 5−5
May 18, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 93post
May 15, 2025at DENDEN 119 − 107post
May 13, 2025at OKCOKC 112 − 105post
May 11, 2025at DENOKC 92 − 87post
May 9, 2025at DENDEN 113 − 104post
May 7, 2025at OKCOKC 149 − 106post
May 5, 2025at OKCDEN 121 − 119post
Mar 10, 2025at OKCDEN 140 − 127
Mar 9, 2025at OKCOKC 127 − 103
Nov 6, 2024at DENDEN 124 − 122

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L
Jan 15at HOU111 − 91W
Jan 13vs SA119 − 98W
Jan 11vs MIA124 − 112W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W